And then there were four of them. The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians have emerged from the American League over the course of two rounds of the 2024 MLB postseason. The AL No. 1 and No. 2 seeds will now compete for a World Series berth in the ALCS.
Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton hosted José Ramírez, Steven Kwan and the best bullpen in the league. This will certainly be a can't-miss baseball game, starting with Game 1 on Monday in New York.
Let's break it down.
Nr 2 CLEVELAND GUARDIANS kontra Nr 1 NEW YORK YANKEES
How did they get here?
Guards: Not only did the Guardians suddenly win the extremely competitive AL Central by a fairly comfortable margin, but they also won enough games to secure a second-place finish and a first-round bye in the ALDS, thanks in large part to another great season from franchise face José Ramírez and his dominant bullpen, headed by closer Emmanuel Clase.
Clase's rare buzzer in Game 2 of the ALDS against the red-hot Tigers put Cleveland in a precarious position as the series moved to Detroit, with the Rangers then facing elimination after he was ruled out in Game 3. But a timely goal from David Fry in Game 4 and Lane Thomas' unforgettable grand slam against Tarik Skubal in Game 5 propelled Cleveland to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.
Jankesi: The Yankees bounced back in style after a disastrous 2023 campaign, winning their 21st AL East crown and the best record in the American League. For the first time since 2012, New York took first place in October. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto lived up to expectations as one of the more dynamic offensive duos the game has seen in years, and the pitching staff finished the regular season in the top 10 in MLB in both rotation and bullpen ERA.
While the production outside of Judge and Soto has been erratic, if not downright discouraging, we've seen huge changes this postseason with rookie Austin Wells, trade acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr. and super slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who showed off the explosive potential of this lineup. Stanton added to his stellar October resume with an important series against Kansas City that lifted the Yankees past the Royals in four games.
A key duel
How significant is Cleveland's advantage in the bullpen?
The Guardians came into October with one obvious superpower compared to the rest of the playoff field: a bullpen that ranked at or near the top of every possible statistical category. As expected, Cleveland leaned heavily on its midfield corps to get past Detroit – so much so that some of its best units suffered a rare mishap along the way. That said, just because Clase allowed almost as many earned runs in the ALDS (4) as he did in the entire regular season (5) doesn't mean the Yankees will be thrilled to see him leave the arena.
It won't be a walk in the park in the late innings leading up to the Clase, either, especially if Cleveland takes an early lead. Considering he appeared in all five ALDS vs. Detroit, Cade Smith's elite fastball was finally introduced to a national audience – and in spectacular fashion, as the rookie right-hander struck out 12 of the 22 batters he faced. Hunter Gaddis also had his moments, as did Eli Morgan, Tim Herrin and Erik Sabrowski. It's certainly not a one-man show with Clas in episode nine; manager Stephen Vogt will rely on several of these players for high-leverage outs throughout the series.
However, given how well New York's bullpen trio of Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle pitched last inning and for much of the second half of the season, it's possible that the Yankees have a staff that which will be able to match zeros to Cleveland's “pen” in the later stages of the competition. With a deeper and more powerful stable of starting pitchers, New York shouldn't expect as much from its relievers, so it will focus more on delivering when their names are called rather than carrying the load for entire games like Cleveland's saviors do.
So far, the Yankees' bullpen has done exactly that, combining to allow zero earned runs against the Royals in the ALDS. For now, this matchup may still have Cleveland's advantage, but the gap certainly seems smaller than you might have expected a few months ago.
How they win
Guards: Vogt has said all season that his team wins because of the bullpen, and that's unlikely to change now. However, Cleveland also enters this series with a noticeable advantage on the basepaths as well as defense. The Guardians stole 60 more bases than the Yankees in the regular season and were much better at taking extra bases when opportunities presented themselves. While they may not be able to keep pace with New York in terms of hitting, the Rangers could fill the gap in run production with timely and aggressive baserunning and exceptional bullpen defense capable of thwarting potential Yankees rallies.
It should also be noted that the Guardians are not quite the small-time dealers we have seen in recent years. After ranking 29th in home runs in 2022 and 30th in 2023, Cleveland's 185 regular-season long balls ranked 12th in the league in 2024. There's more pop in this lineup now, and Yankee Stadium is a much more Homer-friendly ballpark than Comerica Park or even Progressive Field, so it wouldn't be shocking if the Rangers fired a few dingers in the Bronx that helped them steal a game or two on the road.
Jankesi: Although hitters not named Stanton were relatively quiet against Kansas City, the Yankees' offensive ceiling remains much higher than that of their opponent. What the Yankees lack in speed on the bases, they make up for by simply being on base all the time and punishing opposing pitchers with gigantic home runs, as no team has allowed more walks or hit more dingers than New York during the regular season.
But while New York using its offensive advantage on offense would be the easiest way to defeat the Sentinels, there is also a path to victory by preventing escapes. Cleveland's offense is quite hard to hit and boasts more power over the fence than in recent years, but the Rangers still aren't getting on base at a particularly rapid rate, and as their 20 consecutive scoreless frames against Detroit showed, their bats can get cold for longer time. If New York's stellar pitching staff can take advantage of the Rangers' tendency to drive pitches out of the zone and keep their best bats alone, the Yankees should be in decent shape in this best-of-seven game, which has more time for pure talent to win than in a more condensed series.
Series prediction
Yankees in seven
We've seen these teams face each other in October several times over the years, most recently in the 2022 ALDS, where the Yankees came back from a 2-1 deficit to defeat Cleveland in five games. A good number of names on both squads remain from this series, although it mostly involves position players, with the most notable new additions being Cleveland's Thomas and Tanner Bibee and New York's Soto and Carlos Rodon.
The Yankees won both series against the Guardians during the regular season, winning two of three in Cleveland in April and two of three in the Bronx in mid-August. Both of Cleveland's wins came in extra innings, and the Yankees' run differential in those six contests was plus-15. The Rangers are certainly capable of causing an upset here, but star power and excellent starting pitching give New York the edge in what should be a great series.
