French government collapse imminent: Macron faces mounting pressure

Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government could be overthrown by parliament today. Emmanuel Macron is increasingly losing control of politics.

Stefan Brändle, Paris/ch media

It was a last dramatic appeal to reason for parliamentarians: Michel Barnier declared on the most important TV channel on Tuesday night that they should be aware of their responsibilities and consider the overriding interests of the country. “The situation is serious,” the conservative head of government said. “We have to be careful because the situation in the country is tense.”

The call may have come too late: right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen was unmoved, confirming that her National Rally (RN) would support the left-wing Front's motion of no confidence in the National Assembly. Arithmetically, the two opposition forces hold a majority of 289 seats out of 577. Barnier's days at the Hotel Matignon, the seat of government, appear to be numbered. No one in Paris had any doubts about the outcome of Wednesday night's vote.

Even French President Emmanuel Macron, who is currently on a state visit to Saudi Arabia and has harshly criticized the opposition's “intolerable cynicism”, is said to have been thinking about Barnier's successor in his spare time.

The trigger for the government's declared collapse was an abrupt change by Le Pen, the founder of the National Party who had previously tolerated Barnier's minority center-right government. In order to increase its chances of the 2027 presidential election, it has adopted a Republican position since nominating the 73-year-old prime minister in early September; Barnier has received some assists.

Le Penidget

On Monday, Le Pen announced her rejection of a social security budget and her support for a left-wing no-confidence motion – known in France as a “denunciation”. This is tantamount to a death sentence for the Barnier government, which was established less than three months ago.

Le Pen did not specify why she abandoned Barnier. There are two possible reasons for this change. The first reason is electoral politics: according to surveys, Le Pen currently leads in most demographic and age categories – with the exception of the elderly. The fact that Barnier wants to delay the automatic cost-of-living adjustment in the 2025 budget by six months has been welcomed by Le Pen: With this de facto pension cut for her Njet, she hopes to win over retired voters .

Le Pen did not specify why she abandoned Barnier.Image: trapezoid

The second – and perhaps decisive – reason is tactical. In mid-November, the prosecutor's office demanded not only a modifiable prison sentence for Le Pen in RN's embezzlement of EU funds trial, but also that she be ineligible for at least five years. It was a political bombshell: the three-time presidential candidate would not be able to run again in 2027; Le Pen's decade-long run at the Elysee Palace was over.

The verdict, due on March 31, will change everything for Le Pen. In order to get a head start, Le Pen obviously wants to provoke a new presidential election in advance. The first step is to overthrow Barnier's government. He will and will inevitably turn to Macron. The fact that Barnier's government is so fragile is entirely down to the president: he needlessly called new elections in June and failed.

Since then, extreme forces have dominated Parisian politics – Marine Le Pen on the right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's “Unyielding France” on the left. Macron is politically isolated; his approval rating, 17%, is lower than any of his predecessors.

The president should make room

“The king is naked,” left-wing news portal Greetings tersely observed this week. Macron has few options. If his government unexpectedly survives Wednesday night's “review”, it will continue to be battered and will be left with little ability to act. A government collapse would further weaken the president's position.

For constitutional reasons, new elections are only possible next summer, and until then every Macron government has been powerless under the control of Le Pen and Mélenchon. If Le Pen overthrows the next government again soon, Macron won't be able to hold on much longer.

Calls are growing for the president to resign and make way for a new beginning. The Invictus Party has collected 378,000 votes in its petition to impeach Macron; on the right, not only RN MPs but also liberal former ministers like Jean-François Coppet have proposed its downfall The head of state resigns. They pointed out that as long as the regime crisis is not resolved, France will increasingly be threatened by economic and financial crises.

Le Pen knows that Macron will not voluntarily give up his selfish nature. But she could argue that if she sacked the next prime minister soon after Barnier's fall, the president would no longer be able to hold on. No one expects Macron to stay in power until the end of his term in 2027. Except maybe himself.

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