The presidential race is complicated, as the last key state in Vice President Harris' column goes to former President Trump.
But while polls show a close race, some voters are rethinking long-held beliefs. This week's power rankings look at the new alliance between Harris and Trump and show how they could make either candidate a winner.
Presidential Predictions from Fox News Power Rankings.
Harris aligned herself with an unpopular Joe Biden during the media blitz
Harris will headline tomorrow when she poses for her first official interview on Fox News.
The meeting will be the vice president's biggest and most watched opportunity in an uneventful media tour.
His talk show appearances went well, and an interview on Call Her Daddy One of the country's most popular podcasts generated the same kind of enthusiasm among young women that Trump got from male influencers.
But last Wednesday, when asked if she would have done anything differently than President Biden during his administration, Harris told ABC View That “doesn’t come to mind.”
Vice President Kamala Harris to Meet with Top Political Anchor Brett Baier for First Official Fox News Interview
Harris on ABC's The View.
The response reminded voters that Harris is second in command in a presidency that they say has made their lives worse.
In the most recent NBC National poll, 45% of voters say Biden's policies have harmed them and their families, while just a quarter say the policies have helped. This is a 20-point “liquid heart.”
Voters say Biden's policies have caused more harm than they have helped.
Voters view Trump's policies much more positively, with 44% saying they helped and 31% saying they hurt. In other words, a “net aid” of 13 points.
The same poll found that Trump's previous job approval was higher than any of his polls while he was president.
The Harris campaign knows that linking the vice president to Biden is not a victory. In her first interview as a Democratic candidate, Harris said it was time to “turn the page on the last decade”; his the bus Telling voters he offers “a new way forward.”
Trump has allies said They will use the clip in new ads, however It is still unclear Will this happen?
Voters about the candidate's qualities.
Democrats respond that elections are also a matter of personal merit. Harris leads the recent New York Times/Sienna Caring for People Like You (+8) and Being Honest and Trustworthy (+11) poll. At the same time, Trump leads by three points in being a strong leader, while Harris leads by eight points in being funny.
Either way, Harris' response was useless for her campaign, which has weeks to convince voters that she would do things differently.
Trump stronger after vice presidential debate
It's been two weeks since the only debate between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, and two polls conducted after the showdown say Vance won the night.
- Among registered voters in the NBC poll, Trump is one point above Harris, 47%-46%. Harris had already led by six points.
- Among ABC and Ipsos likely voters, Harris leads Trump by two points, 50%-48% Poll. Previously, he led by five points.
These are significant changes in Trump's direction, and the NBC poll also showed a slight improvement in Vance's favor.
While polls show a tight race, a new electorate emerges
The polls above show a race within two margins of error among many
But below the top line, there are signs that the Democratic and Republican coalition is changing. And although Trump's gains among black and Latino voters have been the most talked about, both coalitions are strong enough to win the elections.
Trump is making gains with key voter groups.
Fox News Power Rankings: Biggest surprise comes after October
Trump is winning four key voting blocs. Compared to 2020 voters, he was up six points with male voters, while Democrats lost 20 points in the Black vote, 10 points in the Hispanic vote and 3 points in young voters, according to the Times/Sienna poll.
Black and Hispanic gains are more important to the Republican Party. These voters could make all the difference in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona.
The left column of the chart shows the percentage of each group in the 2020 electorate Fox News Voter Analysis. Percentages apply within each voter category (race, age, etc.).
For example, 47% of voters were male, which means 53% of voters were female.
This is where the picture gets more complicated for the Trump campaign.
While men moved six points toward the former president, women moved three points toward Harris. Voters with college degrees shifted 10 points toward the vice president, giving him an overall 26-point lead over the bloc. And Harris took down the seniors.
Harris is making gains with key voter groups.
These are among the most reliably overrepresented voting groups in the United States. Only a third of adults have a college degree, for example, but this group represents 40% of voters.
In other words, Trump's gains with some key groups are offset by Harris's gains with other voters.
Harris lost forecast lead
Battleground voting also represents a race on a knife's edge.
search for The Wall Street Journal And Quinnipiaco candidates in the three key Rust Belt states are within a few points, matching more than a dozen other high-profile polls from last month.
Battlefield polls show the race within a margin of error.
That prediction gave Harris an advantage previously in Michigan. The state has performed well for Democrats since 2016, and Republican Party turnout appears to be particularly chaotic.
But that's not enough when polls show this race to be close. Both are campaigning regularly on Inspection, and Republicans have spent more here than any other swing state (except Pennsylvania, where advertising rates are higher).
Fox News Power Rankings Presidential Map.
Michigan went from Lean D to contention.
After this change, Power Rankings predicts that Harris will win at least 226 electoral votes, while Trump will win at least 219. In between are seven states worth 93 votes.
Presidential Predictions from Fox News Power Rankings.
Harris has a six-vote lead that includes Nebraska's Second District. That's important to the vice president, since a victory there, combined with the battlefields of the Rust Belt, would give him an outright victory.
But with so many coin-flipping states, this race feels like an Electoral College duel. The presidential election went from Harris leading to a toss-up.
Democrats have ticket-sharing advantages in swing states, including Nevada
The Senate forecast still puts Republicans in control, with 51 seats. An almost certain upset in West Virginia and a lead in Montana pushes them over the edge.
Fox News Power Rankings: Senate Republicans Take Control
Senate Map from Fox News Power Rankings.
Some polls still show the GOP Senate candidates trailing Trump. In a recent poll in Arizona, the gap was 12 points wider, with Trump leading the presidential race by five and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leading by seven points over Republican Curry Lake.
Some research shows high levels of ticket sharing.
History says the margin will shrink on election night. The direction of these ticket splitters is less clear. Either Trump voters will return home to vote against Republican candidates, or support for the former president is weaker than polls suggest.
For now, research shows NevadaHis Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen is leading Republican challenger Sam Brown, with his Senate race shifting from a toss-up to Lynn Dee.
Three weeks until election night
More than four million voters have already voted. Early voting is underway in all swing states except Nevada.
Tomorrow, Fox News will be the only place to watch both presidential candidates. 11 a.m. Eastern, see Harris Faulkner Town Hall With Trump in front of an all-female audience in Georgia. A few hours later, Brett Baer would meet with Harris in Pennsylvania. the interview airs at 6 p.m. Special report.
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Fox News Media also Recommended The second Harris-Trump debate will be moderated by Baer and Martha McCallum.
