How good are the chances of Lando Norris overtaking Max Verstappen for the Formula 1 title?
Norris enters the United States Grand Prix weekend 52 points behind Verstappen, with six Grand Prix races and three sprint races remaining. The USGP is the first of three remaining sprint weekends in which a maximum of 34 points can be scored. The winner of the sprint race will receive eight points (second place will receive seven, third place will receive six, etc.), while the winner of Sunday's Grand Prix (noon, ABC) can earn 25 points, plus an additional point for the fastest lap.
Norris is also the favorite to win on Sunday. He is +100 to win the race at BetMGM. Verstappen, winner of last year's race, is the No. 2 favorite at +400, while Norris' McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri is +500.
If Norris wins the sprint race and the Grand Prix with the fastest lap, and Verstappen finishes second in both cases, he will be just nine points behind the three-time champion. That's a decent chunk of points. But it wouldn't be enough to catch up with Verstappen. Thanks to Daniel Ricciardo's fast lap at the end of the final race in Singapore, Verstappen can still win the title, finishing second to Norris in every remaining sprint and Grand Prix.
Therefore, he is still -190 to win the championship at BetMGM. Norris's odds may also be a bit overstated. Norris is +140 to win the title. But to do that he will need misfortune from Verstappen while avoiding his own problems. And that may be too much to ask.
Since Formula 1 introduced its current points structure in 2010, a driver has overcame a deficit in six races and has won just twice. And that driver was Sebastian Vettel.
In 2010, Vettel was third in the standings and 31 points behind Lewis Hamilton after finishing 15th in the Belgian Grand Prix. Vettel finished fourth and second in the next two races before winning three of the final four races of the season. Despite this, it was an extremely close race for points.
Vettel entered the final race of the 2010 season 15 points behind Fernando Alonso and seven points behind Red Bull teammate Mark Webber. He took pole position at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and led 40 of the 55 laps, while Alonso was seventh and Webber eighth. This was enough for Vettel to take a four-point victory over Alonso.
Two years later, Vettel overtook Alonso again with six races remaining. After winning in Singapore, Vettel reduced Alonso's points advantage to 29 with six races remaining. This time, he made up for the deficit much faster. Vettel's victory in Singapore was his first of four in a row, and he took over the points lead from Alonso after his third victory. After winning the Korean Grand Prix, Vettel was six points ahead of Alonso.
He never lost the points lead thereafter, although Alonso came close in the season finale. Alonso was second in Brazil and Vettel was sixth. Vettel won his third title in a row by just three points.
In each of the remaining 12 seasons, the driver with the points lead with six races remaining won the title. This includes Nico Rosberg (+8) in 2016 and Verstappen (+6) in the iconic 2021 season.
This statistic bodes very, very well for Verstappen. He has a significant advantage, even if Norris currently has more pace. However, if you're not a Verstappen fan, you can at least take solace in the fact that F1 appears to have a real title race ahead of it. Two years ago, Verstappen was 116 points clear at this stage of the season and secured the title with six races remaining in the 2023 season.
