Finishing lower in standings helps Senators, but they won’t tank

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The headline: Ottawa Senators deal Vladimir Tarasenko to Florida Panthers.

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The alternative headline: Did Ottawa Senators get fleeced in Vladimir Tarasenko deal to Florida Panthers?

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The alternative, alternative headline: Are the Ottawa Senators looking to tank and finish as low in the standings as possible?

The Senators unloaded Tarasenko in a trade with the Panthers on Wednesday, with what looks like a very underwhelming return heading their way: A third-round draft pick in 2024 and a conditional fourth-rounder (it becomes a third-rounder IF the Panthers win the Stanley Cup this season).

AND the Senators picked up half the cost of Tarasenko’s contract to ease the financial burden for the already-very-good Panthers.

Nice pickup for the Panthers, at a discounted price.

For comparison’s sake, the Vegas Golden Knights picked up Anthony Mantha, giving the Washington Capitals second- and fourth-round picks a couple of days ago.

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Also, for the sake of comparison, a year ago the New York Rangers got Tarasenko and defenceman Niko Mikkola from the St. Louis Blues for conditional 2023 first- and 2024 fourth-round picks, forward Sammy Blais and prospect Hunter Skinner. 

Tarasenko, a winger who had 82 points (34 goals) two seasons ago for the Blues, was playing pretty well for Ottawa, with 41 points (17 goals). The prohibiting factor in any trade-deadline deal was the no-movement clause he was given in the one-year, $5-million contract he signed with the Senators.

It’s not surprising he likely steered the Senators into a corner. Of course he would accept a deal to a place where he owns a nearby home. Nothing bad on his part; it was written into his contract, it was his right.

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Because any deal had to happen on Tarasenko’s terms, Senators general manager Steve Staios was limited in what he could seek and who he could seek it with.

So, the GM, maybe reluctantly, took the Panthers’ offer.

Good on Staios for doing something that would benefit the player, give him a chance to be “home” with his wife and young kids.

Ottawa may never use the draft picks; they’re not going into full-rebuild mode. They may deal the picks for something more “now” than “future.”

Staois likely pushed for a second-rounder to be included and the Panthers stood their ground. Is that the point where you shrug your shoulders and say, ‘OK, thanks, but, no deal, we’re going to keep (Tarasenko)?’ Then you wait and see if the Panthers blink and put a second-rounder back into play.

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It’s hard to point a finger at Staios and say he should have gotten more, but …

You could argue the signing of Tarasenko made no sense in the first place. It pushed them to dangerous salary-cap levels, with Shane Pinto not yet under contract for this season. It was just one in a series of fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants, eyebrow-raising moves made by previous GM Pierre Dorion. There were other needs that went unaddressed; that shows in the Senators’ current resting spot in the NHL standings.

Heading into Wednesday’s game in Anaheim, the Senators were the second-worst team in the Eastern Conference, a point ahead (with three games in hand) of the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the fifth-worst team in the league (also ahead of Chicago, San Jose and Anaheim).

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And that brings us to the next point.

Is it good for the Senators if they play poorly over their final 23 games?

The answer: Probably.

Let’s look at last year’s NHL Draft. The worst team, the Ducks, didn’t get the no-brainer first choice, Connor Bedard. As the NHL’s third-worst team, the Blackhawks had just an 11.5 per cent chance of winning the lottery. The Ducks had a 25.5 per cent chance, while the Blue Jackets were at 13.5 per cent. But the lottery balls fell in the Blackhawks’ favour and they were gifted Bedard.

Finishing lower in the standings doesn’t guarantee the Senators get the first overall pick, but it helps their chances. By finishing fourth-worst a year ago, San Jose had a 9.5 per cent chance of winning the lottery, while Montreal was at 8.5 per cent at the fifth-worst spot and Arizona was 7.5 per cent at No. 6.

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This year’s No. 1 pick seems to be a no-doubter: Boston University centre Macklin Celebrini. 

Realistically, the Senators, who are five points up on Anaheim, could fall as low as third-worst of the league’s 32 teams. Remember, the Blackhawks won last year’s lottery at that exact spot.

It’s no guarantee, but an 11.5 per cent chance of winning is better than 8.5 per cent.

Let’s be clear: In no way do I think the Senators should/will tank to finish as low as possible.

The players aren’t going to play differently, losing is never in their mindset.

And there’s no way management is going to mess with the integrity, right?

Erasing Tarasenko, who’s played well for most of the season, from your lineup probably means you’re making a team that’s been hurt by injuries weaker.

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And, to that point, should the Senators look to unload more? Not so much for draft picks, more for players who can step into the lineup as early as next year?

And, to that point, who should also be traded?

Winger Dominik Kubalik probably won’t fetch much. But maybe somebody gives up a mid-round pick for the former 30-goal scorer.

And, again, maybe that makes your team a touch weaker this season, also giving you a chance to look at prospects, guys who may be a fit for what you hope will be an improved roster next season.

Given what looks like a flawed roster, the Senators have plenty of work to do to tidy it up. As unlikely as it is to happen, a No. 1 overall draft pick who’s been called “special” by hockey observers in the know, would go a long way to making this team better.

Ottawa isn’t going to tank to make it happen, but adding Celebrini to a team that has some terrific young players … Senators fans can dream, right?

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