Trump should help Musk realize his visionary plans for Mars. Image: trapezoid
Donald Trump won the US presidential election with the support of Elon Musk. Now it’s time for Trump to help bring the visionary Mars mission to fruition. Fact check.
Bruno Nellwolf/ch media
As he writes on “X,” the Tesla and SpaceX boss believes he will find an escape hatch to Mars away from a damaged Earth. As a result, the first Starship spacecraft will be launched to Mars in two years without a crew. If the landing is successful, the first manned flight will take place within four years. From then on, “flight speeds should increase exponentially” to make it possible to build “self-sufficient cities” on Mars in about 20 years. Is this really possible?
Fact-checking with Nicholas Thomas, a planetary scientist at the University of Bern.
Elon Musk says Mars is the only place in the solar system where multi-planetary life is possible.
Mars has many conditions that make it a suitable place for settlement. The average distance is only 225 million kilometers, the day length is about the same, and there is plenty of sunshine. “I sometimes think there is more sunlight at the equator of Mars than there is on a cloudy November day in Switzerland,” said Nicolas Thomas of the University of Bern's Space Research and Planetary Sciences. There is also frozen water on Earth that can be melted to produce drinking water and make more rocket fuel. There are several chemical elements that can be developed, including carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur.
Conclusion: Reality, at least for visiting Mars
Musk firmly believes that the Starship transportation system is sufficient to transport people and cargo first to the moon and then to Mars.
SpaceX's Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket are both reusable. The world's most powerful launch vehicle, the reusable rocket can carry 150 tons and the disposable rocket can carry 250 tons. Travel from Earth to Mars is only possible once every two years because the distance from Earth to Mars varies so much. Nicholas Thomas says that's why it initially makes sense to keep cargo and supplies in lunar orbit. Then take them to Mars in a staggered fashion, since not all Starship rockets can launch at the same time anyway.
Conclusion: Reality
To achieve this goal, Musk hopes to refuel in lunar orbit.
Starship uses refueling trucks to refuel Starship spacecraft in low Earth orbit before heading to Mars. Refueling in orbit could transport up to 100 tons of cargo to Mars. Thomas believes this makes perfect sense.
Conclusion: Reality
Landing is the hardest thing, but it's possible on Mars.
The lander will enter the Martian atmosphere at a speed of 7.5 kilometers per second and then decelerate sharply. The heat shield is under extreme stress, but according to SpaceX, it can still be used for multiple landings. That's no problem for space researcher Thomas either. This is already possible today and has been demonstrated with previous rover landings and missions to Saturn's moon Titan. The Swiss companies Apco and Contraves are involved in the production of these heat shields.
Conclusion: Reality
The issue of cosmic rays will be addressed during and after the trip.
Mars settlers will be exposed to radiation during flight. Nicholas Thomas says the problem there is even bigger than Mars itself, with drugs being developed to combat radiation sickness, nutritional supplements to keep bones healthy in weightlessness and suits to help astronauts circulate their blood.
On the face of it, the lethal radiation would be enough to pose a challenge. On Earth it is largely shielded. This is not the case on Mars, where there is no vast magnetosphere and the atmosphere is only one percent as dense as Earth's.
On Mars itself, Thomas said, radiation could be localized using local terrain and man-made shields. American biologist Kelly Weinersmith studied Musk's Mars vision in the professional magazine New Scientist. Martians might have had to build their nests in caves hollowed out by lava flows, she wrote. Or use the materials there to create protective structures. However, this building material from Martian soil, called regolith, is contaminated with harmful chemicals called chlorides.
Conclusion: unrealistic
SpaceX says “fairly cold Mars” will likely be warmed for long-term colonization.
Currently, we are warming the Earth's atmosphere with greenhouse gases. Thomas pointed to a study by Chris McKay of NASA's Ames Research Center, which concluded that the use of perfluorocarbons could warm the Martian atmosphere. McKay believes these are super-greenhouse gases that could heat Mars and compress its atmosphere in the most practical way, allowing liquid water to remain stable on the surface.
However, many experts believe that this so-called terraforming, turning the entire planet into a warmer, wetter place like Earth, is impossible. Terraforming would involve the melting of polar ice caps, thereby releasing carbon dioxide reserves. However, there may still be too little carbon dioxide on Mars.
Conclusion: Unrealistic, can only be realized locally in a glass house
SpaceX says it could grow plants on Mars.
Research on this has continued for more than two decades. In a closed system, Thomas said, it's easy to harvest water from existing atmospheric components and create a denser local atmosphere. “I’m more concerned about soil contaminants like high chlorides than I am about the atmosphere.”
These high chlorides in Martian soil can cause thyroid problems. Plants growing in soil with high chloride levels absorb contaminants into their tissues. Therefore, water and Martian soil regolith must be detoxified before use.
Conclusion: Realistic, but only in closed ecosystems
Elon Musk wants to create a self-sufficient city of millions of people within the next 20 to 30 years.
After the Viking probe first landed on Mars in 1976, there were rumors that a manned mission would take place within the next 30 years. At the same time, technology has developed significantly, but costs have also increased significantly. Currently, it costs $50 to $100 million just to put a human into orbit. Nicolas Thomas says it's hard to imagine taking millions of people to Mars within the next 30 years.
However, for a self-sufficient city of millions of residents to become a self-sufficient city, there are many more hurdles to overcome.
Lower gravity: Lower gravity on Mars will also be a problem in the long term. At 40%, this is significantly lower than the level on Earth. Experiments with complete weightlessness have shown that this can have catastrophic effects on the human body. Muscle loss, loss of bone density, and worsening of vision. How extreme this would be at 40% gravity remains to be seen.
breathe: Mars is so full of carbon dioxide that you can't breathe. “Water is the key. If you find water, you can produce oxygen,” Thomas said. There is also the idea of converting perchlorate into oxygen, which would benefit plants and humans. American biologist Kelly Weinersmith thinks this is unrealistic.
Nutrition: Entire cities should also be able to become self-sufficient. This is only a challenge for Mars returners, as they will have to be self-sufficient on Mars for at least a year after landing. Closed ecosystems with agricultural facilities and recycling systems are required. Biologist Weiner Smith said we know humans cannot live well in closed ecosystems.
For example, the Biosphere 2 project in the Arizona desert failed. Eight people lived there in isolation for two years, starving and losing a lot of weight. Residents suffered severe headaches and nausea due to rising carbon dioxide levels. In China's Moon Palace project, there aren't enough plants to absorb the carbon dioxide emitted by residents. The Chinese participants, who primarily ate mealworms, also became aggressive toward other residents.
Reproduction: In addition, biologist Werner Smith said that self-sustaining human settlements must be able to reproduce larger populations. So far, no one has had sex in space, or even gotten pregnant. We know nothing about the dangers to conception, pregnancy, and child development. Musk may not have considered this yet, either.
Conclusion: Impossible
(aargauerzeitung.ch)
