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Republicans hope to intimidate voters and give the impression that the former president will win by manipulating betting odds.
Rumor has it that the polls are not what they used to be. But what about betting odds? A completely different story. Swarm intelligence means decisive signals emerge from the noise, and those who place bets not only have their beliefs, but also their money.
Donald Trump currently has significantly better betting odds than Kamala Harris. That's one reason why his supporters celebrated him as the victor. The former president is also confident. “I don't know what that means exactly, but it probably means we're doing a good job.”
Betting odds are also unreliable
Well, maybe. There have been clear miscarriages of justice in the past. In 2016, betting odds predicted a Hillary Clinton victory, Trump's re-election in 2020, and a Republican landslide in 2022. Quotas have also repeatedly gone wrong in many regional elections.
Currently, the hottest company in the political betting space is the company Polymarket. The company, founded in 2020 by 26-year-old college dropout Shayne Coplan, operates in cryptocurrency. In the summer of 2024, conservative billionaire and Trump fan Peter Thiel became the majority shareholder.
In this way, it is even more doubtful that everything is going smoothly. Such skepticism is fueled by the fact that political betting markets are illiquid, meaning relatively small bets can trigger large moves. This appears to be the case as well.
Trump's lead on Polymarket can be attributed to just four user accounts. Using bizarre aliases such as Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, they were said to have made cryptocurrency bets worth about $30 million. It is now known that these four accounts are controlled by a single individual, said to be an unknown French national.
The stock price behavior of Trump Media & Technology Group, the holding company behind the Truth Social platform, has been equally strange. In sober perspective, this company has absolutely no value, and from a stock market perspective, it's a bad joke. In the first quarter of 2024, the company had sales of $770,500 and a loss of $328 million.
Getting into the political betting business: Peter Thiel.Image: trapezoid
Despite this, shares have surged from less than $20 to over $50 in the past few days. This can only be explained by the fact that people speculated that Trump would win, or they were deceived by sophisticated speculators. Yesterday the stock price fell by about 30% again.
With questionable betting odds and even more questionable Trump stock gains, Republicans are fearless, including twisting the polls in their favor. In recent days, we have seen numerous polls predicting a Trump victory. One investigation by right-wing influencer Miles Cheong was particularly blatant. He has 1.1 million followers on X.
The poll showed Trump would win 74.3% of the national vote. This would be an unprecedented victory in American history. “Trump is definitely going to win. The data shows it,” Cheong asserted without fear.
Is Big Little Lies 2.0 coming?
What are Republicans trying to accomplish with this obviously fake poll? “They're releasing this information to give the impression that Trump is more powerful,” explained Joshua Dyck, director of the New York Times Public Opinion Center. “The goal is to unsettle Democratic voters and make them very frustrated, thereby No more going to the polls.
At the same time, there is strong suspicion that the fake polls were also designed to set the stage for repeating the big lie that if Harris wins, the election will be rigged against Trump.
A Harris victory is actually becoming more likely. The Washington Post reports that the vice president is clearly in the lead when it comes to early voting in battleground states. Harris currently leads Arizona by 9-12 percentage points, according to exit polls conducted by Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today. Georgia is 7-10, Michigan is 26-39, North Carolina is 2-6, Pennsylvania is 17-35 and Wisconsin is 22-60.
Of course, these numbers shouldn't be exaggerated. The game is still a “coin toss” game, meaning the outcome is as uncertain as a coin toss. But the numbers suggest Harris’ strategy is working. It’s specifically targeted at white women. These people make up about 30% of the electorate.
Inspiring Women: Kamala Harris.Image: trapezoid
White women voted for Trump by slim majorities in the past two elections. Hillary Clinton's approval rating is 47%, and Joe Biden's approval rating is 53%. This year, Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck among white women, according to new data from The New York Times/Siena College.
To win over the last remaining undecided voters, Democratic election strategists are coming up with something new. Pink post-it notes are posted in public restrooms with the message; «From one woman to another – your voice is a secret. Support your rights in November! We won't go back. “
