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The president-elect's economic policies are riddled with contradictions.
“That’s not what he meant at all,” is a standard response from Trump supporters who are not part of the “Make America Great Again” die-hard crowd but support him nonetheless. Many people who voted for Trump hope he won't keep his promises, which is one of the many mysteries of current American politics.
Financial markets have also internalized this argument. This is why Trump announced that he would impose 25% punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and even increase tariffs on China to 60%, but there was no response. “Why all the fuss about this?” Wall Street shrugged. Things can't be that bad. After all, Trump's Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent has said the tariffs will be implemented in a homeopathic manner over an extended period of time.
Donald Trump is named Time magazine's “Person of the Year.”Image: trapezoid
As we all know, homeopathy is largely a matter of faith. The financial world seems to be wrong, too. In an interview with Time magazine's “Person of the Year,” Trump made it clear that only he can ultimately make important decisions.
Regarding punitive tariffs, the Wall Street Journal now makes clear: “Donald Trump’s threats to impose punitive tariffs have sparked a behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign to water down the president-elect’s plans. But those efforts face an insurmountable obstacle :Trump doesn’t want to give in.”
Trump’s tariffs must be enforced: Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessant.Image: trapezoid
In turn, the Post wants to know how Trump’s economic team is already gearing up to figure out how to implement these punitive tariffs as quickly as possible and how to avoid a fiasco this time around — like the Muslim ban. In customs matters, the president has broad powers independent of Congress. It is said that Trump is even preparing to declare an emergency law to achieve his goals.
Not only is the president-elect willing to implement the already-announced punitive tariffs as quickly as possible (he has yet to discuss the matter with advisers), but he has pledged to go further. Trump recently threatened to punish the BRICS with 100% punitive tariffs if they try to create an alternative to the U.S. dollar.
Trump apparently doesn’t care that these punitive tariffs hit his core rural voters particularly hard. Affected countries are likely to take countermeasures and impose punitive tariffs on U.S. imports. The United States exports large amounts of agricultural products, especially grains.
To keep farmers in line, Trump would have to provide them with $60 billion in subsidies during his first term. Farmers have suffered huge losses as China stopped importing soybeans from the United States. Given the punitive tariffs that have now been announced, these subsidies are likely to be much higher.
Overall, Trump's economic policies are riddled with contradictions. Gillian Tett lists some of these in the Financial Times:
- Trump promises to eliminate inflation again. But his punitive tariffs could further stoke inflation. It has now risen back to 2.7%.
- Trump recently pledged not to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. From a legal perspective, it's not easy either. But at the same time, he wants to force “idiot Powell” to lower key interest rates. However, the wayward Fed chairman is not easily pushed around.
- Trump wants the dollar to weaken. However, his punitive tariff policy had the exact opposite effect and strengthened the dollar.
- Trump rejects David Ricardo’s classic trade theory, according to which trade benefits all participants. But at the same time, his policies are strengthening the dollar, thereby indirectly boosting imports. That's why his plan to redress the trade balance won't work.
- The U.S. economy is booming largely because of government infrastructure spending. The deficit currently accounts for more than 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Trump wants to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP. At the same time, he also wants to cut taxes significantly, especially on the wealthy and corporations, and fill the gap with revenue from punitive tariffs. Most economists believe that achieving all of these goals simultaneously is extremely difficult or even impossible.
The biggest contradiction of the Trump administration, however, is that the Republican Party has recently positioned itself as the new workers’ party. Meanwhile, the president-elect’s cabinet is stuffed with billionaires. There are growing signs that the administration also wants to cut spending on Medicaid, a program that primarily benefits poorer, rural populations.
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