Does Switzerland have more or less snow?

Learn about the current status of the infamous polar vortex and the latest long-term forecasts.

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Every year… before the cold season arrives, there's not only Santa and holiday stress, but also speculation about what winter will be like. Winter lovers in Switzerland usually hope for nice, cool and snowy months, but they are usually disappointed.

The winter of 2022/23 had minimal snow, but the following winter was extremely wet – but at least north of the Alps, temperatures were nearly four degrees warmer than the 1961-1990 average. This made last winter extremely cold. Some are the hottest since systematic records began.

Another cold, snowy winter – is that it? !Image: KEYSTONE

It's difficult or impossible to predict whether fans of snow and winter will be disappointed again. But we can at least cautiously keep an eye on the status of the polar vortex and the latest long-term forecasts from major weather services.

current situation

This week we experienced our first real cold temperatures. Still, the first frost in the lowlands takes a long time to arrive. “The weather will be tense over the next few days, but the first frosts are unlikely in many places,” writes the Swiss meteorological office MeteoNews. That's already quite late: According to long-term averages, northern Switzerland will have its first frosts between late October and mid-November. Frost appears. But that could happen in the second half of next week. “But it will be much later than usual,” Meteonews said.

Basically, whether and when winter gets really cold depends on what's called the polar vortex.

polar vortex

Every winter, so-called high-altitude lows appear at the poles. This means extremely cold air at high altitudes. The reason is that during the polar winter, sunlight no longer reaches high latitudes. Therefore, air mass exchange occurs only to a limited extent.

This image shows a comparison between a stable (left) and a “disturbed” or wavy polar vortex.Image: NOAA

As a result, a powerful, normally closed air of cold air is formed. The air is enclosed by strong jet streams (polar jet streams). How the weather develops at different latitudes depends largely on the strength and direction of this strong wind: if the situation is as shown on the left, then there is a strong westerly flow here. This won't bring us extremely cold temperatures, but it will occasionally bring storms that form over the Atlantic Ocean. In other words: A strong jet stream and “trapped” cold air over the Arctic translates into a fairly mild, precipitation-heavy winter.

Conversely, if the polar jet begins to become unstable, some of the cold air will be pushed away. Especially the cold air from the north reaches far south.

What is the current situation? “The stratospheric polar vortex is currently well developed and from this perspective, it is healthy,” MeteoNews writes in its current weather blog.

Judging from the polar vortex's trends, it's likely to stay that way for a while.

This is also reflected in the forecasts for wind conditions: the European Meteorological Service shows persistent westerly winds in almost all models. According to MeteoNews, truly thorough mixing of the upper cold air with the lower air layers may not occur, and the likelihood of extreme cold air outbreaks in the Far South will also be reduced.

Model and its limitations

What is it like beyond that? To answer this question, you can check the current seasonal forecasts from the major weather services. What's important is:

Therefore, the element of uncertainty is large; weather forecasts are only really accurate for the next few days. At the same time, long-term weather forecasts are getting better, and their predictions for a hot summer in 2022 are quite accurate.

Institute of Meteorology

Institutions and agencies such as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are responsible for medium- and long-term forecasts of precipitation, pressure distribution, and temperature. In Europe, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is considered the best place for future forecasts. But the German meteorological offices and Météo-France also determine long-term trends.

model

As the basis for long-term predictions, these models use numerous variables in extremely complex systems, including the position and movement of the jet stream and various air pressure systems. Also crucial, although not so for Switzerland and Europe, is the so-called ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). It describes a complex system in the South Pacific characterized by irregular ocean temperatures and wind systems.

Forecast: “Seasonal Forecast”

air pressure

Both European and American weather agencies believe that the coming winter months will be characterized by above-average air pressure over the Atlantic Ocean (also known as the Azores High).

Deviations of European air pressure in December, January and February compared to the long-term average (1993-2016).Image: ecmwf

The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also predicts extremely high air pressure, especially over the Mediterranean. The same applies to much of continental Europe, but to a lesser extent. Meanwhile, air pressure appears to be unusually low in northern Scandinavia.

What this could mean for the weather: “Based on this data, the track of the low appears to be moving further north in many cases,” MeteoNews said. In other words: In winter, major weather disturbances in the form of low-pressure areas with precipitation from the Atlantic Ocean, the “weather kitchen”, are more likely to pass through northern Switzerland.

precipitation

This pressure distribution can have effects, particularly on precipitation. In particular, US models and some European models predict relatively more precipitation in northern Europe and relatively less precipitation in the south. Switzerland seems to be somewhere in between. So, looking at trends and precipitation, winter here looks normal.

Deviations of European precipitation from the long-term average in December, January and February.Image: NOAA/tropicaltitbits

temperature

This is no longer a surprise, it's more like the new normal: Winters are warmer than average. The same situation will almost certainly play out in the coming months.

Deviation of European average temperatures in December, January and February from the long-term average.Image: ecmwf

What differs each winter, however, are the temperature hotspots to expect. The economy looks set to pick up next winter, especially in Northeastern Europe. However, the search for cold poles is in vain, writes MeteoNews. and:

So, what are the cautious and tentative conclusions? Weather models are currently indicating (again) that the winter will be warmer than average. Recent polar vortex status and seasonal forecasts also indicate that a prolonged cold spell is unlikely until at least the end of the year. Northern regions are more likely to experience above-average precipitation and major weather disturbances, while southern regions are more likely to experience below-average precipitation. Precipitation in Switzerland may be average, but in the lowlands it is more likely to be in the form of rain than snow due to the (too) high temperatures.