Over the past two years, the Senate race has focused on a few closely watched states. But weeks ago On Election Day, Democrats and Republicans inject money Battlefield map edge, placing bets A long shot at getting an extra seat in your column.
And these are longshot races, especially during presidential elections when ticket splitting isn't as common as it used to be. In some cases, challengers overtook incumbents. But in all four races — Florida, Texas, Nebraska and Maryland — one of the presidential candidates, former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, is expected to carry the state easily, making things more difficult for the other member. Turn the party the seat
Still, teams are seeing the opportunity slip away. In Maryland, Republicans are hoping that popular former Gov. Larry Hogan can attract independents and Democrats who helped him win two terms. In Florida and Texas, Democrats are focusing on state abortion bans to try to overcome recent losses in those states. And in Nebraska, an independent is running against a two-term Republican senator.
In Texas and Florida, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said last month that will launch a “Multi-Million Dollar Investment” in TV advertising costs.
These races, in which Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is challenging Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the Lone Star State and former Democratic Rep. Debbie Muckersel-Powell is challenging Republican Sen. Rick Scott in the Sunshine State, have certainly gotten their fair share of attention.
Allred especially has been largely excluded Cruz, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact, is running his campaign to spend $23 million on campaign ads in September and nearly $10 million in just the first 10 days of October.
Cruz's campaign spent about $5 million on advertising in September and $4 million in the first 10 days of October. But super PAC spending in his name and payments to his leadership PAC and the state Republican Party also boosted him.
The disparity in spending is smallest in Florida, where the Muckersell-Powell campaign spent $8.6 million and the Scott campaign spent $2.1 million in September. In the first 10 days of October, the former congresswoman's campaign has already spent more than 5 million dollars, while Scott, a wealthy businessman who invested his own money in his political campaigns, spent just 1.7 million dollars.
But Scott's campaign has set aside an additional $5.2 million in advertising since Election Day, with more to come.
Despite promises to spend millions in both states, the DSCC has so far not booked any advertising in Florida AND Texas, it is Booked $1.6 million in Allred campaign as well as an integrated ad buy.
“There's a lot of money spent in Texas, but the truth is, if (Democrats) want to compete, they're going to have to spend a lot more than they do. That's true in Florida, too,” a Republican national strategist told NBC News, throwing cold water on the idea that Democrats are seeing a late surge in their favor in both states.
yet, Strategists on the ground point to a variety of factors beyond cost as the reason these races may shift in their favor.
In Florida, voters will have a say in November on two ballot measures that Democrats say could swing turnout in their favor — one that would legalize marijuana and another that would expand access to abortion. Florida currently prohibits abortion after six weeks, as does Texas.
A spokesperson for the Muckersell-Powell campaign told NBC News that Scott “embraced” the state's abortion ban when it was signed into law, and that could be an issue for him among voters who plan to vote to expand access.
And in the wake of two hurricanes that wreaked havoc in parts of the state, the same spokeswoman said they plan to target Scott, who was the state's governor before running for Senate, in a state plagued by a property insurance crisis.
In the TV ad, Scott fired back. in one ad, she addressed voters directly on camera, telling them that she and her daughter “agree that (in vitro fertilization) should be safe for our family, for all families.”
The ad countered national Democrats' argument that Republicans who ban abortion would try to limit access to in vitro fertilization treatment.
In another ad, he became aggressive, denouncing Muckersell-Powell as a “socialist” who wanted “higher taxes on families.”
In Texas, Democrats attacked Cruz over abortion One 2021 He traveled to Cancún when the state faced an energy crisis following a severe winter storm.
Republicans in border states responded by boosting Cruz's credentials on border security An ad sponsored by Cruz Harris County District Attorney, a Democrat, told voters, “I'm supporting Ted Cruz because Democrats and Republicans need to work together now to solve Texans’ problems.”
Cruz and other Republicans also attacked Allred over transgender women and girls competing in sports.
In an ad paid for by the Cruz campaign, a narrator criticized Allred for “promoting an ultraliberal vision for America: boys in girls’ locker rooms, boys in girls’ bathrooms, boys in girls’ sports.”
Earlier this week, Allred responded, telling voters in his own direct-to-camera ad: “Let me be clear. I don't want boys playing girls' sports or the ridiculous things Ted Cruz is saying.
Allred's response to Cruz's attack “shows it was a good message” that resonated with voters, the GOP national operative said.
Despite Democrats' efforts to invest money and attention in these races, they have not yet become the contenders they are about to be in Republican-leaning Montana and Ohio and the swing states of Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walters still rates the Florida Senate race as “likely Republican,” although the group changed the Texas Senate race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” earlier this month.
A week earlier, the group had slightly shifted the Nebraska Senate race away from Republicans, from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” even though that state leans heavily toward Trump at the top of the ticket.
The move comes as independent Senate candidate Dan Osborne gains ground on Republican Senator Deb Fisher in recent public and internal polls.
In Maryland, the Senate race is equally dynamic, with Cook calling the race a “Democratic likely” although Harris is expected to win easily.
Hogan faces a strong challenge against Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race she is expected to win easily if she faces another Republican.
Although Alsobrooks is leading in public polls, a source close to her campaign told NBC News it's “definitely a competitive race,” adding, “I don't underestimate the former governor of eight years.”
And Hogan, although he ran as a Republican and worked with the National Republican Senatorial Committee to run joint TV ads, called himself an “independent, common-sense leader” and an “Independent” who promises to be a “swing vote who can take on the extremes of both parties, the lunatics on both sides.”
“We ran an aggressive race, just like Larry Hogan,” added a source close to Alsobrooks, but pointed out the county executive’s main argument against the former governor: that he would give Republicans the majority in the Senate.
“As a person, I like Larry Hogan,” Alsobrooks said at a campaign event in September. “But that’s not the question we’re answering in this election. We are determining which party will control the Senate.”
In Nebraska, Osborne attempted to run as a true independent, rejecting endorsements from figures in either party. But Democrats decided not to run a candidate, clearing the way for Osborne and giving him the opportunity to form a coalition of Democrats, independents and some Republicans.
“The votes in my race match what I'm seeing in Nebraska,” Osborne told NBC News in a statement: “Our message of standing up for small businesses, family farmers and working families is resonating because Nebraskans want a senator who listens to them, who defend them and who will be a strong voice for them in the Senate.”
State Republicans have attempted to disguise Osborne as a Democrat, with independent Senator Bernie Sanders' 77-day strike in 2021 while working as a mechanic at a Kellogg's factory in the state pointing to Osborne's support.
Note that Democrats reacted Osborne's strike was supported by a bipartisan group of politicians, including then-Republican Governor Pete Ricketts, who called the company in December of that year to negotiate with the striking workers.
There are advertising costs remains relatively low, at least compared to other Senate races considered competitive.
In September, Fisher and his supporters spent $1.8 million supporting him and attacking Osborne, while former union workers and their supporters spent $2.7 million.
Republicans say the nation will turn to Fisher before Election Day, pointing to Trump's strength in the state. Former president endorsed Fisher last month.
In a statement, Fisher's campaign manager Derek Oden hinted at an internal promotion poll conducted earlier this month that showed Fisher leading Osborne by 6 points, within the margin of error (but still within). (Fisher won by double digits in each of his two Senate terms.)
“We hope this positive trend continues over time and that more Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborne is not an independent – he is a liberal Democrat in disguise,” Oden said in a statement.
