Almost every modern US presidential election cycle has been disrupted by an unforeseen “surprise” of one kind or another.
In July 1972, Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern was shocked to learn after his party's summer convention that his running mate, Thomas Eagleton, had secretly received electroshock therapy to treat bouts of depression.
This was enough to discredit Eagleton with the big poohbahs of the Democratic Party and help doom McGovern's campaign.
Eight years later, I was working as a strategist on Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential campaign, when my bosses coined the phrase “October Surprise.”
They were worried that our opponent, President Jimmy Carter, would transform the race by negotiating a last-minute deal with armed Iranian revolutionaries to free the 53 American hostages who had been held in Tehran for more than a year.
Of course, everyone wanted the hostages to be released, regardless of the circumstances, but it was our job to anticipate the potential political consequences of such an event.
Now, in 2024, here we are again.
It's early October, the elections are less than four weeks away, and there's another October surprise in the works.
This is not man-made. It is not the result of an unforced error by a candidate who behaved badly.
It's an act of God falling on the critical swing state of Florida.
It's early October, the elections are less than four weeks away, and there's another October surprise in the works.
First, I pray that everyone affected by Hurricane Milton emerges from this storm safe and free from property loss.
I also recognize that this, tragically, is an unlikely outcome. Therefore, I offer this analysis as a political strategist and researcher, fully aware that many things in life are more important than an election.
But it's my job to consider what might happen – and I've concluded that Milton could be a game-changer on November 5th.
Let me explain:
In the 2020 elections, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in Florida by more than 370,000 votes, which is equivalent to just 3 percentage points.
That's a decent margin in the Sunshine State, but not dominant.
Trump won in 2020, in part, by boosting the Republican count in ruby-red Republican counties like Pasco, Marion and Sarasota, near Tampa.
Large turnout in these Republican strongholds offset Democratic victories in blue regions of the state, such as Miami-Dade County in southeast Florida.
But now, Hurricane Milton is bearing down on the heart of Florida – and places like Pasco and Sarasota are directly in its path.
(Above) Hundreds of people take shelter at Virgil Mills Elementary School before Hurricane Milton in Palmetto, Florida
(Above) Robert Haight looks around his destroyed home after it was struck by a tornado in Fort Myers, Florida, on October 9, 2024
Of all 15 Florida counties under state mandatory evacuation orders, 14 are predominantly, if not overwhelmingly, Republican.
The total number of registered Republican voters in those 15 counties is slightly more than two million, while the number of registered Democrats in those same counties is about 1.2 million.
Approximately 800,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the state of Florida are being told to leave their homes.
And that can have a huge impact.
In the 2020 election, there was a whopping 77% turnout rate in Florida – meaning nearly one in eight eligible voters voted.
What will be in 2024?
Both Florida Democrats and Republicans in these Milton-affected areas will be under duress, hopefully not life-threatening, but certainly disadvantaged or inconvenienced to the point of not being able to vote.
For the sake of argument, let's consider what would happen if displacement, financial loss, physical harm or emotional stress reduced the voter turnout rate in Florida to 40 percent.
That's a realistic assumption. Who would bother to vote if their house had been destroyed or their truck destroyed – or worse?
At this suppressed rate of 40 percent, only 320,000 Republicans in these affected counties would show up on Election Day or mail in their ballot.
That represents a projected loss of 280,000 Republican votes.
Remember, Trump only won by 370,000.
In other words, this election may have gotten much, much closer.
And now let's add to these calculations the additional motivational factors that are driving Florida Democrats to the polls.
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There is a measure on the ballot that would establish the right to abortion in the Florida Constitution — and another would legalize recreational marijuana.
Many of my fellow Republican strategists underestimated the electoral impact of abortion measures in the 2020 midterm elections – as they predicted a “red wave” for the Republican Party across the country.
I thought otherwise and said so on national television at the time.
In fact, the 'Red Wave' never materialized.
There are reasons for Donald Trump's campaign to be concerned.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is an honorable guy and understands that his primary duty is to protect the people and property in his state.
But I hope the governor's office, among its many initiatives in the coming days, will also think about how voters might be disenfranchised by this storm.
Perhaps the governor could loosen the mail-in voting rules or, better yet, attach a mail-in ballot – Democratic and Republican – to every aid package distributed by his Office of Emergency Management.
In doing so, the Governor will fulfill his obligations to protect life and democracy.
No race should be won because Americans couldn't vote.
Craig Keshishian was project director for President Reagan's research team and later served in Reagan's Office of Presidential Research and Speechwriting.
