China continues its aggressive policies in the Indo-Pacific region

New Delhi: After the global economic collapse in 2008, Beijing has been making efforts since it saw an opportunity to change the current global order. Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear China's ambition at the 19th and 20th Party Congresses. He made it clear that China wants to be a “preeminent great power with global influence” – in other words, by 2049 it will have the ability to influence and shape international organizations that only the United States has. Including the inclusion of countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has facilitated China's efforts. At the same time, the global structure of power is changing. The two primary competitors today are the US and challenger China.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has invested heavily in Russia, as has Russian President Vladimir Putin. They increased their common agenda by declaring “friendship without limits” during their two summits. They also agreed to make the existing world order “more fair” and “equal”. Today, China is the largest country that can withstand Russia's attempt to withstand Western pressure. Despite US and Western sanctions, China remains Russia's largest trading partner with a trade volume of USD 188 billion.

By starting a war with Ukraine, Putin fired the first salvo in an attempt to change the current world order and US hegemony. At a time when it is under considerable pressure from the United States, it is in Xi Jinping's interest to ensure that Russia is not defeated and that China is not left as the only major communist power facing the West. A long, detailed joint statement released after their last summit in May 2024 revealed commonalities in their concerns and a wide range of cooperative efforts. Both have clearly recognized their positions on security, sovereignty and resistance to interference in their internal affairs by foreign powers.

Xi Jinping has moved quickly, unveiling key features of the China-led world order he envisions. Apart from “A Community with a Shared Future for Humanity”, these are Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI). Chinese leaders are now seeking to include this formulation in the joint statement. But to succeed in this endeavor and become a major world power surpassing the US, China must first dominate the resource-rich South China Sea and make the Indo-Pacific or Asia its backyard. It wants to be the sole guarantor of security for Asia.

China is already the dominant economic influence among Southeast Asian countries. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China in 2010, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in 2022 and the BRI have helped China in the event of economic intrusion and serious conflict. These countries want to avoid having to choose between the US and China. China's navy has the largest number of warships in the world, and in another challenge to the US, Beijing has not hesitated to ignore the treaty arrangement with the US and forcefully advance its territorial maritime claims with Japan and the Philippines. Japan has said that between April 2023 and March 2024, airspace violations by Chinese military aircraft prompted the jets to engage in combat approximately 669 times. Last month, China also urged the Philippines to withdraw from the disputed Sabina Shoal after a five-month hiatus. Clashes with Vietnam continue, with the Chinese coast guard brutally beating and injuring Vietnamese fishermen last week. Aggression on Taiwan has intensified with regular military operations around the island. References to “peaceful reunification” were noticeably dropped by Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Qiang after China's Third Plenum earlier this year. Xi Jinping's speech at China's 75th founding anniversary on October 1 made no mention of “peaceful reunification.”
Meanwhile, other powerhouses such as India, Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia have emerged. China's ambition is to encroach on their sovereignty or freedom of trade, and none of these countries will willingly consent to China's imposition of its will. In April 2020, India stood firm against China's attempt to forcibly change the borders. Another strong indicator is India's rejection of a proposal to devalue the dollar at BRICS last week. They will be a factor in the growing conflict between the US and China.

Jayadeva Ranade is the Chairman of the China Center for Analysis and Strategy and a member of the National Security Advisory Council.