What does winning the presidential election come down to?
It comes down to holding onto the constituencies you should be able to hold on to, but also winning the swing states and the independents.
Now, I’ll make my usual cautionary statement about polls which are moments in time and can change.
But they’re looking increasingly bad for Biden and if they hold with what is reported here, that’s the game, that’s doom for Biden. You can’t lose the swing states and independents and hope to win.
As I previously reported about five days ago, former President Donald Trump is not only leading him now in all seven states, but in some states, he was crushing him by eight, even ten points, in a pretty reputable survey. He was up by six collectively.
This has been consistent with prior polls and has actually been getting worse for Biden.
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It’s Trump 48 percent to Biden 29 percent. Trump is up 19 points with independents.
Now we will have to see if that continues, but I think the reasoning is simple as this gentleman describes it here.
People know they had money under Trump. They know they’re broke with Biden. And that’s what so many are feeling. Now they have a point of comparison, and they remember.
They also remember when there was less chaos, and Trump was brokering peace accords, versus Biden leading us into wars and giving our money away.
Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), who is challenging Biden, pointed out what a problem this was for Biden if this number is true.
Biden won South Carolina but only 4 percent turned out and he was embarrassed in New Hampshire because of the Democratic shenanigans to take away “first in the nation” primary status from the state and shift it to SC to help Biden.
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How’s Biden doing at holding onto those constituencies that he needs?
He’s also having trouble with the young voters — particularly with the folks on the left over the Israel-Hamas war — and black voters.
Not only that, but the new NBC poll also has another concerning data point showing another reason people have moved away from Biden.
That’s also consistent with an ABC poll earlier in the month, but it’s getting worse. That was disastrous enough already at 28 percent in that poll.
It’s hard to imagine how Biden pulls out of this tailspin.