Are Liverpool the real deal? What the data says about Slott's dream start | Liverpool

MAnyone said it was an 'impossible job'. Manchester United and Arsenal both slumped after the departures of Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger, so obviously, the same thing will happen. Liverpool when Jürgen Klopp stepped aside, no?

Arne Slott's reign at Anfield and Liverpool are 10 games into the fourth round of the Carabao Cup, leading the Premier League with the most points in the league stage of the Champions League. Slott became the first Reds boss to win nine of his first 10 games in charge of the club.

It's going well but, it's just the beginning. Unai Emery has won eight and lost two of his first 10 since Wenger at Arsenal in 2018. So Slott's impressive start should be taken with a pinch of salt for now, but the former Feyenoord boss is living better in England than many predicted.

One notable aspect of Liverpool in 2024-25 is their form on the road. As well as dispatching Milan 3-1 at the San Siro in the opening Champions League game, Slott's side have a 100% record in league away games, beating Ipswich Town, Manchester United, Wolves and Crystal Palace.

Liverpool won just nine of their 19 away games in the league last season and took until December 9 to win their fourth away game of the campaign. It will be their ninth league game in 2023-24, despite tricky trips to Chelsea, Tottenham, Brighton and Manchester City. Another thing to consider; While Liverpool are top of the pile, they have had a good start to the season on paper.

Fixture difficulty graphic after seven Premier League games. Photo: Opta analyst

As the old saying goes, you can only beat what's in front of you, and apart from one day against the impressive Nottingham Forest at Anfield, where they were beaten 1-0, Slott's Liverpool have been otherwise flawless.

One of the keys to Liverpool's seamless transition from Klopp to the slot is that the two managers' playing styles are similar in many ways. They both prefer a back four and reverse wide forward attacking trio. The midfield makeup is a bit different, but it's still about energy and doing a poor job for the rest of the team.

In an interview TNT game Ahead of the season, Slott said: “In the matches we played in pre-season, I think you saw a lot of similarities with Jurgen's style implemented here. We both like to have the ball and we both like to be very intense without the ball. Jürgen likes to be very aggressive on the ball and I like that in some moments, but I don't mind that we have the ball and Jürgen doesn't mind keeping the ball for a while. “

Looking at Liverpool's numbers compared to Klopp's tenure this season, there are already small differences from a small sample size, so it's worth bearing in mind that the data will fluctuate during the remaining 31 games of the campaign.

Diogo Jota was Liverpool's goalscorer alongside Cody Kakpo after their 1-0 win at Crystal Palace last weekend. Photo: Ashley Western/Colorsport/Shutterstock

Liverpool are expected to average 2.0 per game; They have averaged just 0.74 xG this season in Klopp's two league campaigns (2021-22 and last season). That's down from 1.22 last season. Again, this is a small sample size.

Unlike last season when they averaged 20.8 shots in the league, Liverpool's high xG this season is not due to shot volume. Slott's Liverpool have averaged 15.3 shots per game in the Premier League, their lowest average under Klopp in 2018-19 (15.1). 2023-24 has been a busy one for Liverpool at both ends, as last season they faced 10.9 shots, their highest average under Klopp. That's down to 9.1 this season.

Are they taking better care of the ball now than Slott wants? Liverpool have averaged 570.1 in the Premier League this season, lower than in every entire Glop season. However, although they attempt fewer passes, their accuracy (86.6%) is higher than any league campaign under the German. Liverpool's average of 60.3% is the lowest since 2015-16, but third in the Premier League this season behind Manchester City (63.5%) and Tottenham (62.4%).

Interestingly, only City have had more sequences of 10+ passes, which means that although Liverpool pass it slightly less, their sequences are also broken less often. They are averaging 4.5 passes this season, up from 4.2 in 2023-24.

Liverpool have often felt in control of games this season, whereas the popular perception is that their games have been more chaotic in the last few years. 'Control' has become a buzzword around them of late, and the low number of chances they concede suggests they can control games better down the slot. Trent Alexander-Arnold's role in recent seasons has been key to how Liverpool have been built, but now it's spread across the team. Alexander-Arnold averaged 100 touches per 90 minutes for Liverpool last season, but has managed just 76.9 touches per 90 so far this term. This may be due to him sticking to traditional right-back positions more than he did in previous seasons, when he moved into midfield more often.

Trend Alexander-Arnold heat map for 2024-25. Photo: Opta analyst

With Alexander-Arnold sticking to the right flank it feels like there is a consistent structure and balance in defence, which will no doubt be a relief for Ibrahim Konate at right-sided centre-back.

Liverpool conceded 41 goals in the Premier League last season, while they have conceded just twice after seven games under the slot. The next best defensive records are against Arsenal and Forest with six goals each. Again, the small sample size and the strength of their opposition must be considered, but they reduce the quality of the prospects they face so far.

Liverpool averaged 0.11 xG in the Premier League in 2023-24, compared to 0.08 this season. It may not sound like much, but only nine teams averaged more xG per shot against last season, while only Arsenal (0.07) averaged the lowest so far this season.

How about bowling? Klopp's teams were known as 'pressing monsters', with former assistant Pep Lijnders declaring their “identity” to be “intense” on several occasions. Their total turnovers (defined as winning the ball within 40 meters of the opposition's goal line) are the seventh highest in the league, averaging 8.7 a game, compared to their average of 10.3 last season – third highest. Liverpool have won an average of 4.3 times a league game in the opposition's final third, less than in a full season under Klopp, with 10 teams doing more than the Reds' 30 times in 2024-25.

However, this will not be a change in philosophy. One possible explanation for all this is that Liverpool are chasing fewer games than they played on average in 2023-24. In fact, they have led more games than anyone else this season (58%), and only Arsenal (2%) have trailed for less than 3% of their time.

Premier League State of Play for 2024-25. Photo: Opta analyst

Liverpool conceded the first goal in 16 Premier League games last season. The latest Liverpool have scored a goal on 61 minutes was Mohamed Salah's penalty in a 2-1 win at Wolves. The Nottingham Forest defeat was the only game where they were chasing rather than defending a lead in the final third of a game.

Slott has made it clear how important it is to win duels. For each fight won, the fight is lost depending on the outcome of the match. Liverpool, who have not won more than 50% of their duels in any full league campaign since 2019-20, have won 51.3% of their duels in the Premier League this season. Their current win rate is the highest in any season under Klopp.

This brings us nicely to the players who get the best of the slot, and we start with Konate. The French centre-back started the season on the bench as youngster Jarrell Kwanza was handed a start at Ipswich on the opening day after van Dijk. Conade came on at half-time and helped Liverpool take control at Portman Road, eventually winning against the promoted side. He started every game apart from the 5-1 Carabao Cup win over West Ham.

Konade struggled for form last season, with Klopp opting for Kwanzaa over him for periods. Since returning to the team in 2024-25, he has scored an impressive 30 in 36 aerial battles (83.3%) in all competitions, compared to 110 in 157 (70.1%) last season. Having missed the net in the previous two campaigns.

Another player who needs a strong season and is rising to the occasion is Ryan Gravenberch. The former Ajax and Bayern Munich midfielder has become an integral part of Slotin's midfield and has earned that spot, winning 59.3% of duels in all competitions, making 61 recoveries and 19 interceptions – more than his teammates – and finishing at 89.7. % of his passes.

In terms of attack, the headline number marks the progress of Luis Diaz, who has already scored five goals in seven Premier League games, having conceded just eight throughout last season. The Colombian creates fewer chances (2.0 per 90 minutes down from 2.2 last season) and takes fewer shots (3.0 per 90 down from 3.2), but he is more clinical in his finishing.

As with any team, injuries will be a factor. In the early weeks the slot's men mostly avoided them. Harvey Elliott was the only notable absentee before Saturday when Alisson suffered a hamstring injury.

As mentioned, many will now be looking to see how Liverpool perform when the quality of the opposition increases. In the next run of Premier League fixtures, Liverpool face Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa. All tough fixtures, even if it's just Arsenal's game away from Anfield. According to Opta's fixture difficulty, which is based on the opponent's strength in the Opta Power Rankings, Liverpool have the fourth most difficult games in that period.

For the next 10 games, the competition is tough for every team. Photo: Opta analyst

Extrapolate that to the next 10 league games, and Liverpool's task is much tougher. By the time they play the final game of that run, we'll be just two games from the halfway point of the 2024-25 Premier League season, and Slott's Liverpool should have a better idea of ​​how ambitious they are.

It was Klopp who confirmed on Wednesday that he will become head of global soccer for Red Bull in January 2025. Ten games into the post-Klopp era at Anfield, you could argue that it was Slat who gave Liverpool their wings. The question is, how high can they reach?