The US election has entered the final stage. Image: trapezoid
An investigation into the political agendas of two US presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, has come to a surprising conclusion and shows how difficult it is for Democrats to find the right communications on the campaign trail .
October 29, 2024 09:50October 29, 2024 10:05
Only Donald Trump can save the US economy. Only Donald Trump takes a tough stance on immigration. Only Donald Trump can win the fight against fentanyl.
That's what Republican voters often say when asked about the country's most important political challenge.
But is this really true? Is Trump the only one suitable to solve the big problems in American politics? Is Trump the only one who is tough on immigration? Can only Trump win the fight against America’s drug problem?
Regardless, a new YouGov investigation and a Washington Post opinion piece based on it raise suspicions. Registered voters in both parties were blindly surveyed on more than 100 political proposals from Harris and Trump, meaning they had no idea which camp the political approach came from.
Opinions on a myriad of different solutions were surveyed, from drug policy and border policy to economic policy and foreign policy. The results are surprising.
Clearly, Harris' solutions tend to be favored by both Democrats and Republicans. Democratic candidates' agendas tend to be more popular than their opponents' agendas.
Harris' proposal gains more support
These two charts show registered voter support for various proposals. Each dot represents a policy from Harris (left) or Trump (right).Image: YouGov
If you look at an analysis of polls, nearly all of Harris' policy proposals have majorities among registered voters. For Trump, however, the ratio is only about half.
The most popular aspect of Harris' policy is the plan for measures to secure the border. Trump's most popular proposal is to eliminate the Social Security income tax.
Harris also leads on topics
The Washington Post divided the different policy proposals into eight categories: crime, education, economy, immigration, social challenges, environment, health and foreign policy.
The same story plays out here: While Harris and Trump are roughly equal on immigration, foreign policy and the economy, the Democratic agenda clearly prevails on the other five issues.
Harris' proposals on the environment, health, education, crime and social challenges have gained significantly more support among registered voters than Trump.Image: YouGov
Things get exciting when you examine each subject area in more detail. On crime, for example, Harris' proposal is more popular than Trump's, even though people are more likely to trust Republicans on issues like crime and guns.
For example, Harris proposed requiring background checks for all gun purchases. The proposal was supported by 86% of registered voters.
At the same time, some of Trump's proposals on crime have been difficult to accept. For example, the death penalty is imposed for certain drug crimes. Only 29% of voters agreed with this.
The Washington Post also came to this conclusion:
“Part of Harris' overall strength is that her policies appeal to voters across the political spectrum. That strategy may sound obvious, but it wasn't for Trump — at least for much of the campaign. He appeals to his supporters in a big way and it shows.”
Op-ed in The Washington Post.
Undecided voters lean toward Harris policies
Not surprisingly, both candidates' agendas have been well received by their respective voters. But: Surveys also show that various Harris proposals are more popular than Trump's among undecided voters.
Harris' proposal is more likely to be popular with undecided voters. Image: YouGov
The key to correct communication
The investigation shows how Harris and her team are working to show registered voters what their specific political plans are and what they actually look like. Apparently people don't know what Harris stands for.
This was also reflected in YouGov's final survey. Respondents were asked to guess which candidate proposed an individual measure.
Typically, ideas with widespread support are more likely to be attributed to Trump. For example, restricting the export of advanced technology with military applications to China—a proposal Harris owes much to Trump.
For these five political measures, the largest share of registered voters surveyed attributed them to the other party.Image: YouGov
The survey also showed voters were more likely to attribute proposals from both political camps to Trump than to Harris.
For example, both candidates favor increasing domestic oil and gas production. But only 8% of respondents attributed the suggestion to Harris.
When it comes to issues like this, voters tend to think they're from the Trump camp — despite suggestions from both candidates to that effect.
The two candidates proposed 11 measures in the YouGov poll.Image: YouGov
Of course, the popularity of a policy does not necessarily prove that it has substantive merit. Furthermore, just because a candidate promises something doesn't mean it will be implemented. Voters do not give equal weight to all political issues.
Yet the investigation shows how Harris' team struggled to explain their policies in detail to Americans. Survey analysis shows that their political proposals have support from a broad base — Democrats and Republicans alike — but many Republicans don’t seem to know it.
Most importantly, it shows that American campaigns are largely based on emotion rather than facts.
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