After the US election: Welcome to Trump's world

analyze

The re-elected president's victory shocked the world.

follow me

In his book The World of Yesterday, Stefan Zweig describes how his environment changed in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Puritan morality gradually collapsed in the Victorian era. A new attitude to life began to spread in Vienna, where Zweig grew up, at least in the circles in which the writer moved. Europe is open and you can travel to any country without a passport. The fruits of the Industrial Revolution slowly trickled down to the middle class. In short: life was good in the Belle Epoque.

The First World War not only claimed millions of lives but also stifled new freedoms and an optimistic attitude towards life. Totalitarian regimes are on the rise and the joy of the Belle Epoque is fading. The wave of hatred reached its peak with Hitler and Stalin. Zweig moved to Brazil. In 1942, he and his wife committed suicide together.

His dream ended: John Lennon and his wife Yoko Ono.Image: trapezoid

No one expected such an extreme reaction. But the shock of Donald Trump’s victory has triggered a depression in left-liberal circles. You don't have to take John Lennon's global hit “Imagine” literally, after the fall of Berlin, to believe that a world in which all people can live in dignity and peace is possible. Anyone who still believes in this dream may need professional help.

Instead, fear of a new authoritarian regime is spreading rapidly. For example, Michelle Goldberg wrote in a New York Times column:

The Economist reached the same conclusion more calmly:

Reactions to Trump’s onslaught have varied. Some agree with Martin Luther, who is said to have said: “If I knew the world would end tomorrow, I would plant an apple tree today.” They point out that Trump's victory was not as initially claimed A landslide victory that the Democrats ultimately had no chance of stopping.

In fact, there’s a good reason for this paper: Covid. The epidemic has disrupted global supply chains and inflation is virtually inevitable. The danger may have been initially underestimated, and aid plans may have been a little too high.

But in this year's election, inflation dealt a huge blow to all parties in power – left and right. In France and Belgium they lost 36 percentage points, in the UK they lost 46 percentage points, and in Germany the traffic light alliance just collapsed. From this point of view, the performance of the Democratic Party in the United States is relatively good. They only lost 7 percentage points.

Consternation: The disillusioned democratic electorate.Image: trapezoid

However, the Democratic defeat is also painful because it is difficult to explain rationally. Well, the Biden administration is not doing well on immigration. But Trump must first prove he will do better. Without illegal immigration, American agriculture would collapse. By the way, this also applies to Europe. This is why even Italy's right-wing government cannot control the problem.

The second leg of Trump’s victory, “woke madness,” is pure fiction. Trump warned his fans at rallies that they must be careful not to let their children go to school as boys in the morning and come home as daughters at night. As ridiculous as it sounds, this lie had a big impact. The most successful Republican electoral focus has been on transgender issues.

This in turn shows how far right-wing populists have strayed from reality. But how do we counter this conspiracy theory nonsense with facts?

Trump's shock will have consequences, first and foremost, economic. Trump's ire may be directed primarily at China, but Europe's economies are also facing difficult times. The already beleaguered German auto industry must expect punitive tariffs to further undermine its strength. All NATO countries must also prepare that they will have to provide military and civilian assistance to Ukraine on their own.

Switzerland may also be on the radar of the 47th president. Trump doesn’t like trade deficits, and we have a huge current account surplus with the American people. If the SNB attempts to support this surplus by artificially depressing the price of the Swiss franc, the results could also be disastrous.

Celebrating Trump’s victory: Bernd Höcke.Image: comment://647602039/2139148

Most importantly, however, Trump's onslaught has had an impact on sentiment. Right-wing populists are cheering and smelling tomorrow. They will finally let go of their inhibitions because Trump has shown them that lies, incitement and overt racism are not only socially acceptable but have become a recipe for success.

Does this mean that the path to a new totalitarianism is already charted? No. All those who do not believe the neo-fascist argument rightly claim that its economic basis is missing. Unlike during the two world wars, we have neither mass unemployment nor mass suffering. And it’s unclear whether the widely cited “checks and balances” of the American system could be so easily undermined.

However, we must expect that the political temperature will drop. The weather is going to get colder, and not just because winter is approaching. The only thing that offers hope is Trump’s apparent incompetence. However, this is little consolation. So we will have to face the new Trumpian world and accept that the “better angels” Abraham Lincoln once said have abandoned America this time. They've clearly put the union on hold – probably for a long time.