Ukrainian drone pilots in action.Image: trapezoid
The former commander of NATO's allied forces in Europe believes that the possibility of peace in Ukraine without losing territory is slim.
Thomas Vanhove/t-online
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In the first days after the election, Donald Trump spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and accepted congratulations from Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin. So far, there is no sign that the war will end in one day, as Republicans repeatedly promised during the campaign.
Still, experts do not rule out that Trump will at least put more pressure on both parties than under Biden. Adm. James Stavridis, the former commander of NATO allied forces in Europe, was skeptical of the timeframe announced by Trump.
“If he ends the war in 24 hours, I will be the first to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize,” he told CNN's “Smerconish.” Still, he believes the talks have the potential to move forward and bear fruit under Trump.
“It could end like the Korean War: Putin will get 20 percent, the area he currently controls. 80 percent of Ukraine will become democratic and will join NATO in three to five years.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists that Russia withdraw its troops from all occupied territories.
James Stavridis believes Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia.Image: imago stock&people
In 1953, after a proxy war between China and the United States, North Korea split into two countries. The 38th parallel and the demilitarized zone remain borders to this day. A peace treaty was never concluded.
“This is not the worst outcome,” the U.S. Navy admiral said. “Maybe there will be a demilitarized zone, like in South Korea, controlled by NATO soldiers, but not by the United States,” he added. Ultimately, Ukraine was unable to join the European Union and thus become more closely tied to the West.
Czech President Peter Pavel also doesn’t think Trump will reach a deal overnight. “I don't think it's realistic, but at the same time I believe he will try to end this war and make a deal with the president [Wladimir] “Go to Putin,” said Pavel, a former general and chairman of NATO's military committee. Pavl also warned at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Prague Defense Summit on Friday:
“It would probably not be in our interest, nor in Ukraine's interest, to reach such an agreement.”
According to US magazine Newsweek, Trump's advisers have said that a future deal could cede parts of Russia-controlled Ukraine to Moscow. Kyiv's membership of NATO will be delayed for at least two decades. Another possible scenario, Pavel said, is for Europe to transfer long-term responsibility for protecting the continent's eastern flank and non-military territories to Ukraine.
Kyiv prepares for meeting between Zelensky and Trump
Bryan Lanza, a member of the Trump campaign, told the BBC that the new administration will ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about his “realistic vision for peace”: “If President Zelensky comes to the negotiating table and says we can only wish you peace if we have Crimea, he will show us that he is not serious,” he said. “Crimea has lost. “Trump's spokesman immediately distanced himself from the statements and said Lanza did not speak for Trump. “
Kyiv has already taken this step. Ukraine says it has begun preparations for a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Foreign Minister Andrij Sibiha stated this at a joint press conference in Kiev with EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell. However, Sibiha did not reveal any details – neither a time frame nor the location where the meeting might take place. “A dialogue between Trump and Zelensky has been established,” he said, referring to the two politicians' most recent phone conversation days ago.
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