Average mortgage rates fell to a more than 15-month low last week. Why such a sudden decline?
During its July meeting, the Federal Reserve made no changes to interest rates while hinting at a September rate cut. Not long after, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a disappointing job report that triggered recession fears, sent financial markets into a tailspin and caused a dramatic dip in mortgage rates.
Typically, poor economic data is good for mortgage rates, which track movement on longer-term bond yields (specifically the 10-year Treasury). After the most recent labor report, yields on the 10-year nose-dived, with mortgage rates following suit.
Despite frantic calls from some investors for the Fed to carry out an emergency rate cut, that won’t happen.
The economists I’ve spoken to have been clear: A single data point doesn’t point to an inevitable recession, regardless of the reaction in financial markets. As of now, a September rate cut is all but guaranteed and a second cut before the end of the year is also more likely. Larger interest rate cuts — half a percentage point instead of quarter-percent cuts — could be a possibility.
If July’s inflation figures released on Aug. 14 show price growth cooling again, it could help drive down mortgage rates further. But prospective homebuyers, or homeowners looking to refinance an existing home loan, shouldn’t expect mortgage rates to fall at last week’s rapid pace.
As markets stabilize and show less volatility, there’s a chance we might even see mortgage rates move slightly higher in the near term, says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage site, HSH.com.
Will mortgage interest rates fall in 2024?
Today’s average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.51%, according to data from Bankrate, CNET’s sister site. Since last week, average rates have fallen 0.23%.
When the Fed starts cutting interest rates, borrowing rates for home loans will also go down. Prior to last week’s stock market crash (and quick reversal), most economists and housing market experts expected mortgage rates to fall half a percentage point by the end of 2024.
As housing authorities, like Fannie Mae, update their economic forecasts, mortgage rates might receive even more relief in the next few months.
Over the long term, a more realistic expectation would be average mortgage rates around 6%, marking a healthy balance between the extreme low-high vacillations we’ve seen since 2020, says Erin Sykes, founder of real estate company Sykes Properties.
Will the Fed cut rates in September?
The Fed has three remaining policy meetings in 2024 (Sept. 17-18, Nov. 6-7 and Dec. 17-18). Since the Fed typically tends to avoid adjusting interest rates too close to a presidential election, we aren’t likely to see major monetary changes at the November gathering.
September would be the last opportunity to cut before Election Day, according to Sykes.
In order for the Fed to lower rates, there needs to be continued progress on inflation and further weakening of the labor market (i.e., higher unemployment). The most recent jobs report could propel the Fed to shift its outlook to make a deeper cut at its September meeting, if not an emergency cut before then.
It may also influence the number of cuts the Fed makes this year. The central bank’s most recent Summary of Economic Projections outlines just one rate cut in 2024, but it may be forced to lower rates twice to avoid a recession.
Other factors affecting the housing market right now
Today’s unaffordable housing market results from high mortgage rates, a long-standing housing shortage, expensive home prices and a loss of purchasing power due to inflation.
A balanced housing market typically has five to six months of supply. Most markets today average around half that amount. Even though we saw a surge in new construction in 2022, according to Zillow, we still have a shortage of around 4.5 million homes.
At the start of 2022, mortgage rates were near historic lows of around 3%. As inflation surged and the Fed began hiking interest rates to tame it, mortgage rates roughly doubled within a year. In 2024, mortgage rates are still high, effectively pricing out millions of prospective buyers from the housing market. That’s caused home sales to slow, even during typically busy homebuying months, like the spring and early summer.
Since the majority of homeowners are locked into mortgage rates below 6%, with some as low as 2% and 3%, they’re reluctant to sell their current homes since it would mean buying a new home with a significantly higher mortgage rate. Until mortgage rates fall below 6%, homeowners have little incentive to list their homes for sale, leaving a dearth of resale inventory.
Though homebuying demand has been limited in recent years, home prices remain high because of a lack of inventory. The median US home price was $419,300 in May, up 5.8% on an annual basis, according to the National Association of Realtors.
High home prices make it difficult for prospective buyers to afford a down payment and the cost of carrying a large mortgage. According to a recent study from CNET’s sister site, Bankrate, prospective buyers need an annual income of more than $100,000 to afford a median-priced home.
Inflation increases the cost of basic goods and services, reducing our purchasing power. It also impacts mortgage rates: When inflation is high, lenders typically set interest rates on consumer loans to compensate for the loss of purchasing power and ensure a profit.
Even though the inflation rate has been cooling over the past year from its peak of 9.1% a few years ago, price growth is still significant. The most recent inflation data shows annual inflation at 3%, which is still above the Fed’s 2% target rate.
Will mortgage rates ever be 3% again?
A few years ago, homebuyers could take out home loans with rates between 2% and 3%. Mortgage rates will fall over the next year, but they won’t reach those levels. Housing market experts say it would take a significant economic crisis for mortgage rates to drop below 3%.
Read more: You Won’t Get a 2% Mortgage Again. How to Adjust to a Different Housing Market
There is no single “average” mortgage rate. They vary significantly depending on how each source, whether that’s a lender or a government-backed agency like Fannie Mae, compiles their data. It’s likely you see a difference of several percentage points between two sources.
Expert advice for homebuyers
It’s never a good idea to rush into a major purchase like buying a home without knowing what you can afford, especially with current interest rates. In addition to having a clear homebuying budget, here’s what experts recommend:
Build your credit score. Your credit score is one of the main factors lenders consider when determining whether you qualify for a mortgage and at what interest rate. Working toward a credit score of 740 or higher will help you qualify for a lower rate.
Save for a bigger down payment. A larger down payment will allow you to take out a smaller mortgage and get a lower interest rate from your lender. If you can afford it, putting down a down payment of at least 20% will also eliminate the need for private mortgage insurance.
Shop around for mortgage lenders. Comparing loan offers from multiple mortgage lenders can help you negotiate a better rate. Experts recommend you get at least two to three loan estimates from different lenders before making a decision.
Consider the rent vs. buy equation. Choosing to rent or buy a home isn’t just comparing monthly rent to a mortgage payment. Renting offers flexibility and lower upfront costs, but buying allows you to build wealth and have more control over your housing costs. The best choice depends on your finances, lifestyle and how long you plan to stay in one place.
Consider mortgage points. One way to get a lower mortgage rate is to buy it down using mortgage points. One mortgage point equals a 0.25% decrease in your mortgage rate. Generally, each point will cost 1% of the total loan amount.
