Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah – what it means now

The Lebanese army should ensure that Hezbollah abides by the agreement. Does she have this ability?
The Lebanese army is weak. Whether it can control southern Lebanon all the way to the Israeli border is in doubt. I'm skeptical.

Image: KEYSTONE

Israel says it can immediately launch another attack if the ceasefire is violated. Hezbollah denies such an agreement. How should it be evaluated?
It follows that Hezbollah is willing to portray this ceasefire as a victory on its own terms. Other militant groups in the Middle East do the same thing. Iran has also stated that this ceasefire is a great success in resisting Israel. Of course she isn't. This is the result of both parties realizing that maximum demands are not going to get us anywhere.

How powerful is Hezbollah still?
It's hard to say. To be sure, Hezbollah has suffered massive losses of fighters and material in recent months. However, after Hassan Nasrallah's death, Hezbollah was said to have lost its leadership and was unable to carry out attacks again. However, Hezbollah's repeated rocket attacks on Israel in the days leading up to the ceasefire showed that Hezbollah remains a relatively powerful force.

Israel has expressed concern that Hezbollah is rearming despite the ceasefire. Can she do this?
Our understanding of the text of the agreement shows that Israel insists on not allowing Hezbollah to arm itself or smuggle weapons into the country. It is unclear whether Hezbollah acknowledges this. What we do know, however, is that Israel has bombed several crossings from Lebanon to Syria over the past few days in an effort to prevent weapons being transported via this route. Whether Hezbollah can be prevented from rearming as a whole remains to be seen.

Thanks to the ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israel now has more capabilities to confront Hamas in Gaza. What developments are you looking forward to?
Israel is at least ready: Satellite images show it is building roads into the Gaza Strip that could be used for military purposes. Benjamin Netanyahu may want to establish a long-term military presence there. Hamas is fundamentally prepared to end the fighting and release the approximately 100 hostages still being held. But only if Israel permanently withdraws from the Gaza Strip. This, in turn, is impossible for Israel. The situation remains on lockdown.

What is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doing? Specifically to free the Israeli hostages?
Well, his real goal is to completely destroy Hamas. However, this is unlikely to be achieved through military means. Hamas will continue to exist as a resistance force with terrorist ideas, also because of the large number of casualties caused by the Palestinian side. Perhaps one day the group will no longer be called Hamas, but its ideology will remain. The conflict between Israel and Hamas is not going away anytime soon.

A boy receives medical treatment after Israeli rocket attacks in the Gaza Strip. Image: trapezoid

Experts believe that Netanyahu cannot withdraw troops from Gaza or he will lose the support of the government. Do you agree with this assessment?
Absolutely. Right-wing extremist ministers in his cabinet, such as Itamar Bengvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have repeatedly stressed that Israel must not make any compromises on Hamas. If Netanyahu withdraws from Gaza, they will leave the government with their splinter parties, and it will fail. The pressure these politicians put on Netanyahu was enormous.