Donald Trump threatens war with Mexican drug cartels

During the campaign, Donald Trump threatened to send U.S. troops to Mexico. That's how he wants to fight drug crime. However, civilians may suffer.

Simon Craven/t-online

Donald Trump rarely skimped on terse rhetoric during his campaign. Yet the president-elect always comes into his own when it comes to one of his most passionate projects: immigration policy. Trump often targets Mexico. Millions of immigrants deemed criminals by Republicans would be deported — most of them from America’s southern neighbors. What's more: Trump is threatening his neighbor with steep import tariffs that will put the Mexican economy to the test.

But when it comes to Trump's drug policies, things get more militarized. In a June interview with Fox News, Trump said military strikes against Mexican drug cartels were “absolutely” under consideration. Trump claimed that 300,000 people in the United States die every year from overdoses on fentanyl drugs imported from Mexico. His designated “border czar” Tom Homan threatened drug cartels, saying Trump would be “highly focused” on them. The Trump administration wants to “eliminate” criminal organizations.

As head of the police and customs agency ICE, Homan is actually supposed to be responsible for protecting the border. The fact that he has now joined his would-be boss in threatening powerful Mexican drug cartels bodes ill. Over the decades, the U.S. “war on drugs” has experienced many twists and turns. However, the interests of the people of Latin American countries are rarely met.

“Mexico is very sensitive to violations of national sovereignty”

Gunter Mayhold, an expert on Latin America, believes that South and Central American countries are often playthings of US politics. “Drug policy and its impact on Latin American countries is largely due to domestic political developments in the United States,” he told t-online in an interview. While Joe Biden also views drug policy as health policy, Trump sees it primarily as a security and immigration issue. He clearly doesn't shy away from taking the harshest measures.

Gunther Mayhold.Image: zvg

By his own account, Trump would resort to military means against drug cartels even if Mexico disagreed. This would be a fatal disregard for national sovereignty. Trump reportedly considered missile strikes during his first term as president, according to former Defense Secretary Mark Esper. Even some Republicans now believe the idea of ​​sending troops to Mexico makes sense.

“It is highly unlikely that Trump will send regular troops to Mexico,” Mayhold said. Any U.S. intervention would have to be coordinated with Mexico – “Mexico is very sensitive to violations of national sovereignty,” the expert explains. Still, it’s conceivable that the US president-elect would take a detour to get involved: “Trump could rely on private security companies.”

“Trump will only create facts if he thinks they are right.”

This type of intervention cannot be dismissed out of hand. “In the past, Washington has sometimes ignored Mexico's sovereignty,” Mayhold said. “Trump will also simply create the facts if he thinks they are correct.”

What Myhold means: Just last July, U.S. officials arrested Sinaloa drug cartel founder Ismael “El.” Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García, who has been wanted for decades. He was apparently lured into a trap by Joaquín Guzmán Lola, the son of notorious drug lord El Chapo, working with U.S. authorities.

Mexico is angry at its neighbor's go-it-alone approach, demanding a “full report” and “respect” on the process. There had been no formal extradition request.

Drug lord Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. He was arrested in the United States last July.Image: trapezoid

“It is very important to have a security agreement between the two countries,” said expert Mayhold. However, he worries that the US president-elect may take a different path: “With regard to Mexico, Trump may mix immigration, drugs and free trade issues to put pressure on the country.”

Economic topics are particularly sensitive for Mexico. The United States is the largest buyer of Mexican products, and Trump has threatened to raise import tariffs to 100%.

Trump threatens import tariffs

He called on Mexico to stem the flow of immigrants and drugs into the United States. If that doesn't happen, he wants to first raise import tariffs to 25%. Trump said he could raise those tariffs to 100% if Mexico continues to fail to respond to his satisfaction. Without resistance, this may not work. The USMCA free trade area also includes Canada, “which has recently been able to have a calming effect on Trump,” explains Günther Maihold. However, it doesn't get any easier. The Republican seems determined to brutally brutalize America’s drug policy abroad over the past several decades.

America’s “War on Drugs.”

Since 1971, the United States has been in the midst of a “war on drugs” declared by then-President Richard Nixon. Since then, the United States has spent more than $1 trillion on this, according to a 2021 University of Pennsylvania study. According to the Cato Institute, an American economic think tank, drug prohibition costs taxpayers approximately $47 billion annually. Yield: Almost none. Goal: unclear. Because the consumption of illegal drugs in the United States is constantly increasing.

According to the National Center on Drug Abuse Statistics, more than 37 million Americans over the age of 12 were considered drug users in 2020. Compared with the previous year, it increased by 3.8%. According to the National Institutes of Health (NCHS), drug overdose deaths increased from 8.2 to 32.6 per 100,000 residents between 2002 and 2022. In 2022 alone, nearly 108,000 people died from drug overdoses.

Observers also often criticize U.S. drug policy as racist. According to FBI data, 26.1% of people arrested for drug crimes in 2019 were black, and another 20.6% were Latino. That year, nearly 80 percent of those incarcerated on drug charges in federal prisons and about 60 percent of those incarcerated in state prisons were black or Latino.

U.S. opioid fentanyl control

The United States is currently battling an opioid crisis. The synthetic substance fentanyl, said to be 100 times more potent than morphine, particularly contributes to this. About 74,000 people died from fentanyl overdoses last year, according to the National Centers for Health Services (NCHS), so the problem does not appear to be as serious as Trump claims.

Yet by making such exaggerated claims, the Republican Party is pursuing an agenda designed to legitimize its hard line. The drug is typically produced in Mexico and shipped from there to the United States, but the raw materials often come from China.

America’s Problem Drug: Fentanyl Kills Many People.Photo credit: Associated Press/Drug Enforcement Administration

Still, Latin America expert Myhold said Donald Trump is likely to focus on Mexico amid the opioid crisis. “His current focus is on fentanyl producers in Mexico.” Trump is following a pattern the U.S. has used for decades: “Similar to other Republican presidents before him, he will work to combat domestic drug use in drug-producing countries.” “This approach has resulted in many civilian casualties in the past.

While cocaine was still a major problem in the United States, they focused on Colombia's coca plantations. Between 1999 and 2015, they used the controversial pesticide glyphosate to fumigate approximately 1.7 million hectares of land from the air, causing severe environmental damage beyond farmland. Rural populations are particularly affected: tens of thousands of children are born with deformities caused by glyphosate use.

“We provide the dead and you get the profit”

In addition, the United States provided approximately $15 billion to Colombia between 2000 and 2015, much of it in military aid for the “war on drugs” and the fight against guerrillas—officially described as the fight against terrorism. Thousands of innocent civilians were also killed during this time. “This experience resulted in U.S. drug policy in Latin America being viewed as very one-sided: 'We provide the dead, you get the profits,'” Mayhold explains. Because most of the money is made where drugs are consumed.

Under Trump, this approach may be even more crude. Experts worry Trump may also use counterterrorism as a justification for any intervention. The cartels made it easy for him: “Drug cartels have long been operating not only in drug trafficking, but also in human trafficking, money laundering, extortion, illegal mining, and even participating in political activities in their respective countries. Many areas of business.”

Still, Mayhold suspects Trump has little interest in Latin America in general. “There are too few overlapping interests.” This is true even of right-wing presidents such as Argentina’s Javier Milley or El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. Bukele has also recently attracted attention for his tough stance on criminal gangs and the construction of mega-prisons. “They will be riding the wave of Trump, who has shown little to no greater interest in sustainably engaging the region.”