analyze
North Korean soldiers are fighting in Eastern Europe, and Russia needs military help from Iran and China. How big of a threat are neo-authoritarian clubs?
Hauke Friedrichs, Stephen Richter/Zeit Online
An article by
Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin met in North Korea in June.Image: trapezoid
The U.S. and Ukrainian governments say there are as many as 12,000 North Korean troops in Kursk, Russia's western border region. They are located in areas partially occupied since the offensive by Ukrainian armed forces. Its combat capabilities are unclear, but Ukraine reports that it has fired on North Korea in Kursk.
North Korea's political leadership boasts of its help to Russia: Last week, Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui said in Moscow that North Korea would continue to provide military support to its allies in the war against Ukraine and that Russia would win the war. Choi was also received by President Vladimir Putin.
North Korea's direct involvement in the European war has given Putin's invasion a new military and political dimension. It would also pose problems for future US President Donald Trump – despite his announcement that he would be able to end the war in “24 hours”. He is said to have spoken to Putin on the phone on Sunday and warned him of the escalation. Meanwhile, U.S. and Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian president had assembled 50,000 troops, including North Korean soldiers, for a new offensive.
They are united by their hatred of America.
The war in Ukraine brought together four major authoritarian regimes. In addition to Russia and North Korea, this includes Iran and the People's Republic of China. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Thursday called cooperation between the four regimes and the danger they pose to the West one of the most important topics for his future talks with Trump.
In the most dangerous scenario, this axis could lead to North Korea acquiring modern military and nuclear technology from Russia. NATO leader Rutte said it would also pose a threat to the U.S. homeland to further develop North Korea's long-range missiles. On the last day of October, the military tested an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The four authoritarian regimes are united by their sometimes hateful rejection of the United States and its continued geopolitical dominance. They want to break them. Russia and China are also nuclear powers with large nuclear arsenals and launchers. North Korea has currently manufactured approximately 60 warheads and has been subject to severe sanctions from the international community. Iran's mullah regime may already possess the blueprints for a nuclear warhead and the ability to enrich uranium for weapons.
Russia is not ready to use drones yet
The war in Ukraine shows how dangerous authoritarian pacts can become. North Korea and Iran directly support the Putin regime with ammunition and weapons. Chinese companies are helping Russia with technology it no longer gets from the West because of sanctions — and Beijing’s leadership knows this.
In Iran, Putin's generals are buying drones and possibly short-range missiles. Security policy expert and retired colonel Wolfgang Richter said that Iranian drones are very important to Russia, which was not ready to use unmanned systems when the war began. D. German Bundeswehr, interviewed by ZEIT ONLINE. Russia is now producing Iranian drones on its own under license, while Iran is currently helping build a drone factory in Russia's Tatarstan region.
Russian armed forces use various Iranian models to attack Ukrainian targets, especially critical infrastructure such as power plants. “Russia is now firing fewer rockets and cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine,” Richter said. “Instead, they used more advanced Shahd drones.” The think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) also pointed out that there are reports that Iran has launched about 400 ballistic missiles towards Moscow since January 2024 , the strike range of these missiles can reach 700 kilometers. Iran may have begun further missile deliveries.
The regime in Tehran clearly hopes to receive Russian weapons technology in return. Iran has a long list of equipment needed by its sometimes-beleaguered armed forces. This mainly includes the Air Force's attack helicopters, radar systems and modern interceptors.
On the other hand, Chinese companies do not directly supply military weapons to Russia, which has been subject to multiple Western sanctions and should not have access to any weapons technology. As a result, China's arms exports are limited to dual-use products, i.e. components that can be installed in both military and civilian products, such as microchips. “It would certainly be easier if China directly supplied them with components that are used in civilian products but can also be used in defense technology. China also supplies Iran with civilian and military supplies. Russia now benefits indirectly from this,” Richter said .
Chinese leaders back Putin diplomatically
This also includes unarmed micro-drones that can be used for reconnaissance or modified for explosives, as well as trucks, excavators and other equipment that the Russian military can use for logistics and digging trenches. A study this spring by the Ifo Institute on the consequences of sanctions showed that 51% of goods important to the Russian economy or military industry now come from China.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a US think tank, also reported that Russia supplies dual-use components such as semiconductors, ball bearings and machine tools to Russia through a complex network of shell companies located in China and Hong Kong. The report states that China may be the most important supporter of Russia's war efforts. Beijing’s leadership is deeply involved in the European war through close cooperation with Russia, but acts as if it has nothing to do with them.
4.8 million artillery shells and rockets
Putin's cooperation with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un may be the most dangerous, not only for European security but especially for Japan and South Korea. In June, they ratified a comprehensive strategic cooperation treaty that also provides for “immediate military assistance” in the event of an armed attack by a third party.
A recent report by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation, which has close ties to the Liberal Democratic Party, estimated that North Korea has delivered up to $5.5 billion worth of weapons to Russia so far. According to analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel, PDF), this allows the Russian armed forces to continuously fire 10,000 grenades and rockets per day.
By mid-2024, North Korea had delivered as many as 4.8 million grenades and rockets from its stockpile to the Russian armed forces. North Korea's drops are especially important in a large-scale offensive, in which the daily launch rate can rise to 60,000 or more. According to the IfW report, it also includes a number of missiles, possibly including the KN-21 ballistic missile, which complements Russia's extensive and highly effective Iskander ballistic missile arsenal.
Russia may pay for North Korea with oil and food. This is lacking because U.N. sanctions over its nuclear program have cut off the Kim regime from international trade. However, Russian deliveries account for only a small fraction of Chinese deliveries. The large neighbor is vital to the country and the regime's survival; it has supplied oil, rice and fertilizers for more than sixty years.
Eric Ballbach of the Berlin-based Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) said extreme economic dependence on China has been a problem for North Korea's leadership. Rapprochement with Russia provides Kim with an opportunity to weaken Russia in at least some areas. China has always supported North Korea so that the regime can survive but the country cannot prosper.
More interesting to Kim Jong Un is the prospect of receiving higher quality military technology from Russia in exchange for soldiers and grenades. “Possible areas of cooperation may include improving re-entry technology for North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles and establishing a fleet of tactical nuclear submarines and missile systems that can overwhelm U.S. missile defense systems,” North Korea expert Bauerbach doubted.
China and Russia defend North Korea at UN Security Council
For China’s leadership, Putin’s rapprochement with Kim Jong-un is quite galling. It has had a mutual assistance agreement with North Korea since 1961. In addition, North Korea serves as a buffer zone for China against South Korea, which is closely allied with the United States, and the United States also has troops and weapons stationed in North Korea. If Kim's regime collapses, they could reach China's border directly – a nightmare scenario for China's ruling Communist Party.
Because the Kim family, which has ruled since the 1950s, knows the importance of their country to China, they have been able to develop nuclear weapons more or less unhindered in recent decades to protect their regime from Western interference. However, the closer Russia and North Korea cooperate, the less China's control over the Kim dynasty will weaken. “China is unlikely to welcome Russia's close arms cooperation with North Korea, especially since it would increase tensions on the Korean peninsula and solidify the U.S. military presence there,” Richter said.
US and EU politicians have urged Chinese leaders to influence Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These discussions have taken on new urgency as North Korea becomes embroiled in the conflict. Meanwhile, China continues to portray itself as a neutral peacemaker. Now that Kim Jong Un has tested another long-range missile, China's representatives on the United Nations Security Council have joined Russia in blocking any tightening of sanctions on North Korea. The axis of dictatorship against the West remains stable.
This article first appeared on Zeit Online. Watson may have changed the title and subtitle. Click here to view the original article.
