How dangerous is democracy now?

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Trump’s re-election has sent shockwaves through the liberal West.

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Vaclav Havel was not only a famous hero of the Czechoslovak democratic revolution, but also a famous writer. Before becoming the country's president, he was imprisoned several times for his democratic beliefs as he repeatedly opposed the Soviet occupation and fought for greater freedoms. In his novel “Summer Meditations,” he also explains why: “I will never give in at a certain point: there is no point in working for a good cause.”

With the end of the Cold War, there was hope that Havel's fate was a thing of the past. The term “third wave” is widely circulated among political scientists. This means that more and more countries are committed to democracy. In fact, this was the situation from the late 1970s to the turn of the century. The United States is not only the “mother of democracy” but also a role model for many emerging countries.

Václav Havel and his wife after winning the 1989 election.Image: X01095

The campaign against Iraq, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and the idea among the neoconservatives around President George W. Bush that a democracy could be built in the Middle East through “nation building” had given the process its first inkling. obstacles. idea. Soon after, the financial crisis shattered the illusion that the West was the reformative cure-all that it had imposed on emerging countries in the wake of the Asian crisis.

As a result, enthusiasm for democracy and the rule of law in the Western liberal spirit has declined significantly. “Support for freedom is declining, according to an annual study by Freedom House,” Larry Diamond wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine. He is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and is considered one of the leading experts on democracy.

The reelection of Donald Trump has not only accelerated the decline of democratic support, but may also sound the death knell for democracy. “Trump’s decisive victory has left admirers of America’s long journey to democracy fearful for the future of this country and the rest of the world,” Diamond said.

All eyes are on America

Recent years have alternated between light and shadow when it comes to democracy around the world. Russia and China, two avowed enemies of the West, have managed to get some countries on their side. On the other hand, authoritarian rulers like Narendra Modi in India have had to deal with unexpected setbacks, while in Poland an anti-EU conservative government was even replaced by a liberal one.

“But throughout 2024, all eyes will be on the U.S. elections. They are seen as the most important indicator of the future of democracy around the world,” Diamond noted. “Pro-Democratic advocates note with dismay and growing horror that Trump has descended into the depths of paranoia and fear and have vowed retaliation.”

This fear is justified. Trump has said he will not appoint Mike Pompeo or Nikki Haley to the Cabinet. That's to be expected when it comes to former UN ambassadors. She was the only Republican to show resistance to him, though she eventually capitulated. The rejection by the former Secretary of State and CIA Director shows that the factions around J.D. Vance, Don Jr. and Tucker Carlson are gaining influence. Pompeo is considered a conservative, conceited and arrogant, but he has always advocated a hard line against Russia in the Ukraine war.

Unpopular: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.Image: trapezoid

Equally concerning, Trump has announced that he does not want members of his administration to win Senate confirmation, removing them from democratic control. “We need to fill these positions immediately,” he said on his social platform, Truth Social. Meanwhile, the same forces that blocked Pompeo are trying to ensure that the new Senate majority leader is not named John Thune or John Cornyn. Both are considered favorites of outgoing Mitch McConnell and the party boss.

Trump and the MAGA world’s near-boundless enthusiasm for Elon Musk also fails to inspire joy among democratically-minded people. It's no secret that Musk will be tasked with rigorously cleaning up the government, saving the country two trillion dollars. The richest people may lack everything—except empathy. He said he has mild autism and fired 80% of Twitter's employees after taking over. He apparently has the same plan for the federal government.

Trump struck a conciliatory tone after his surprise and clear victory. He wanted to be president for all Americans, without talking about revenge or revenge. You shouldn't be fooled by this. Trump family biographer Gwenda Blair asked rhetorically in the New York Times: “Will Trump fight back? Of course. The only question is how he will do it and who it will affect. (…) He's an eye-for-an-eye kind of guy and he's angry about what has happened to him over the past four years.”

Tone like that of conservative influencer Mike Davis can already be heard in the MAGA environment. He made it known via social media: “I want to drag the bodies of political opponents through the streets, burn them and throw them off the walls.”

Plan 2025 or not, the fact that Trump will enter his second term much better equipped than he was during his first has been well-pointed out. It remains to be seen how much pressure American democracy can withstand. Larry Diamond believes: “It will be many years before we know the answer.”