interview
For political expert Michael Hermann, one thing is clear: Donald Trump's victory has strengthened the power of right-wing populism in Europe. However, Switzerland may be particularly affected by the consequences of Russia's advance in Ukraine.
November 7, 2024, 05:4907.11.2024, 05:55
Reto Wattenhoff/ch media
Mr. Herman, the new President of the United States is Donald Trump. What does his election mean to us?
Michael Herman: First of all, winning has an emotional impact. In recent months, many people in Switzerland have paid close attention to the US election. On Wednesday morning, they woke up and experienced a sense of déjà vu. The impact is no longer as great as it was in 2016 when Trump first entered the White House. Still, surveys show that the vast majority of Swiss people oppose Trump. The level of consternation was correspondingly great.
One of Switzerland's most influential political analysts: Michael Hermann.Image: trapezoid
To what extent?
The American people elected a president four years ago who was unwilling to accept removal and went to great lengths to manipulate the outcome. Even during his time in power, he showed great admiration for the world's dictators. In Switzerland, on the other hand, democracy is at the heart of identity. If someone is elected in the United States, the most important democracy, I wonder if he is closer to a dictator than to his democratic partners, then this will affect the people.
In the United States, populism is prevalent. What impact does this have on Swiss political culture?
There is a risk of being imitated. Trump’s victory sends the message that cross-border behavior is rewarded, not punished. On top of everything else, he got away with sexism and racism. This should once again lower our inhibitions and push the boundaries of what is acceptable. However, I see an important difference. For Trump, the so-called strong types won. And such “strongmen” find themselves in a difficult position in the Swiss political system.
Why?
Just because we have seven federal members, we have equal rights. A strong man with authoritarian qualities could never have performed so well here. Our institutions and political culture are immune to overly dominant figures. Christoph Blocher comes closest to the role – and the ending is familiar. After being voted out of office, the senior vice president failed to make a comeback like Trump.
But Trump's election victory gave the senior vice president a boost.
Yes. At first, his victory strengthened the right wing. Because the following applies: Whoever wins is right. However, it may have a greater impact on political type than on voter share. Even without Trump, the senior vice president is currently reaching his full potential. In any case, right-wing populism is on the rise in Europe. However, the medium-term effects can also be counterproductive.
Veshalbu?
Trump has set off alarm bells, especially in Western Europe, because people here are different and many want to do something about it. For example, the Socialist Party saw a significant increase in membership after its victory in the 2016 elections. More importantly, however, Europe followed one of its most progressive phases.
Can we say what political consequences this will have for Switzerland?
For the mercurial Trump, there is certainly a risk that things could get out of hand, including the economy, especially since he holds majorities in both the House and Senate. Now, he has the confidence to do anything and, unlike in 2016, he has shaken off internal criticism.
If Trump weakens the transatlantic alliance as announced, Europe will have to invest more in security and its military. Should Switzerland also show its own colors?
The war in Ukraine literally hangs over our heads like the Sword of Damocles. But I doubt Switzerland will arm itself now
why not?
This debate is likely to fail. This has been reflected in the Ukrainian issue. Many people have this thought in mind: we are in the center of Europe and it is nice to have friendly countries around us. Switzerland is a classic hitchhiker country. The military lobby is also less powerful than in many other fields. There are many different interests and ideas. Especially at a time when the federal government has to save money.
So if Putin’s friend Trump comes to power, won’t there be consequences for Switzerland’s involvement in the Ukraine war?
There is a very real risk that Russia will find itself emboldened to push further into western Ukraine. Especially if Trump follows through on his threats and reduces financial support for the country. If this happens, millions of people will flee the country, which will have very serious consequences for Switzerland.
It will also increase pressure on Switzerland on people seeking protection in Ukraine.
indeed. The bourgeois parties already hope to tighten policies and repatriate Ukrainian refugees under certain conditions. Senior Vice Presidents go furthest in this regard. But the positive reviews Putin and Trump receive, especially from the right, could hamper that process. If the new U.S. administration indirectly encourages Russia to advance in Ukraine, our refugee problem will worsen. It's that simple, but more immigrants have never hurt a SVP politically. (aargauerzeitung.ch).
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