This means Trump wins the Ukraine war

interview

Donald Trump admires Vladimir Putin and is willing to pressure Ukraine to reach a peace deal. An Eastern Europe expert explains what Trump's re-election means for Ukraine and Europe.

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The winner of the US presidential election is Donald Trump. What went through your mind when you heard the news?
Ulrich Schmid: I thought: This is a turning point in world politics. Trump will try to pursue extremely selfish U.S. policies. For Trump, world politics is an important trading ground. We've seen in his first term that he was actually always interested in America ultimately winning and reaping the political and economic dividends. Values ​​such as international solidarity or mutual support play a subordinate role. After all, he promised voters that America would be great again.

Ulrich Schmid is an expert on Eastern Europe; he researches and teaches at the University of St. Gallen.Image: Hannes Thälmann

What's the situation in Russia – is the Kremlin satisfied with the results of the US election?
This is certainly the outcome Moscow wants. Trump is clearly fascinated by Putin's political style and has an affinity for Russia. We also cannot forget that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election. At the time, Trump was planning the project in Moscow and his team was in contact with the highest authorities in the government. In the run-up to the current presidential election, Russia organized a massive AI campaign that expanded Trump’s social media presence. So today is certainly a good day for the Kremlin.

You said Trump's election was a turning point in world politics. Does this also apply to the war in Ukraine?
Yes. In absolute terms, the United States has paid the most for Ukraine in terms of military and economic support. Trump’s consistent position is: We pay too much but see no results. Of course, now he will work hard to fulfill his campaign promise: to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But he probably won't succeed. The conflict is so complex that even Trump is unlikely to bring Zelensky and Putin to the negotiating table. Trump believes he can implement the deal he brokered between the two presidents.

So once again Trump is just bluffing.
Yes. Of course, this fits Trump’s political character. The promises he makes either need no proof or are future proof. The first part of this bluff is that Trump repeatedly said during the campaign that Russia would not invade Ukraine while he was president. This is a claim that can neither be proven nor disproven. As a statement, it did have an impact on the American electorate.

So did Trump also convince American voters because of his commitment to war in Ukraine?
I think Trump's argument that he will end the war is impressive. It’s clear to voters that Kamala Harris will continue Biden’s Ukraine policies. This means that the United States will continue to provide military and economic assistance to Ukraine, but with certain restrictions. But it also means the current situation of “too little, too late” continues.

What do you mean?
U.S. aid to Ukraine remains too hesitant and has too many conditions attached to fundamentally change the military situation. In this context, Trump seems to have become the guarantor of the new U.S. policy on Ukraine.

What does a Trump presidency mean for Ukraine for the next four years?
This is bad news for Kyiv. Ukraine wants Kamala Harris to win but is also preparing for a Trump victory. Whether this will lead to fundamental changes in Ukraine defense policy will only become clear once it becomes clear what Trump is actually doing.

Despite this, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has congratulated Trump on his election via X.
The Ukrainian president recalled a meeting with Trump in September in a tweet. The meeting was so successful that we didn't know until the end whether it would even take place. Now Zelensky is trying to combine his current “victory plan” with Trump's call for “peace from a position of strength.” However, this is a difficult task. We must assume that U.S. military aid to Ukraine will be reduced during a Trump presidency—at a time when Ukraine is already in dire straits. Ukraine already has too little ammunition, its soldiers are exhausted, and its supplies are too low.

Now could this decide the war?
Yes, Trump's election may actually have a lasting impact on the course of the war, given that the United States has provided most of the military aid to date.

Will Trump's election also affect countries surrounding Ukraine?
Looking at recent elections in Georgia and Moldova, the picture is mixed. The pro-European president narrowly won in Moldova and the pro-Russian ruling party won in Georgia. So we don't have a clear understanding of the situation in either country. However, the impact of Trump’s re-election will not be as profound for Georgia and Moldova as it is for Ukraine, because for these two countries, Europe is more important as a partner than the United States.

Will the risk of Russia attacking other countries increase after Trump becomes president?
Many fear Trump will weaken the alliance with NATO. The United States, on the other hand, has ensured that the president cannot simply terminate NATO membership, but must do so with a two-thirds majority in the U.S. Senate. The United States is likely to become more hesitant and cautious in participating in NATO in the future. But given that Trump’s previous administration included many generals who supported transatlantic security, it’s reasonable to assume that Trump’s staff and administration will soften the future president’s negative stance on NATO.

What does Trump's electoral victory mean for Europe?
For European countries, Trump's election will call for them to pay more attention to their own defense, because strong transatlantic partners can no longer be easily relied on. Germany and France have already set an example. France's self-confidence is particularly likely to grow as it is the only remaining nuclear power in the EU. This could allow Gaullist positions to surface in the French government. Macron will work to create a European security architecture that is less dependent on the United States.

Will this also have an impact on Switzerland?
I think Switzerland, like other European countries, is increasingly focusing on its own defense. Switzerland clearly has a big advantage when it comes to security policy, and that is that we are a free rider on NATO. As a neutral island completely surrounded by a ring of NATO countries, we are the exact opposite of more geopolitically exposed countries like Moldova, Georgia or Armenia.

If the United States withdraws its troops, what other forces can intervene in Ukraine's breach?
It's hard to say. However, it is questionable whether Europe will actually make a stronger commitment. The German government is in crisis, with no way to compensate for the decline in U.S. support. If U.S. aid to Ukraine is reduced, one can only hope that Russian troops will be reduced as well.

In June, two Trump advisers laid out a plan to end the war in Ukraine. He plans to put pressure on Russia and Ukraine. Is a paradigm shift now imminent where those under attack should also be persuaded to submit?
The only way for the United States to put pressure on the aggressor, Russia, is to warn that Ukraine will be heavily armed. In return, Ukraine was told: If you don't surrender, we will stop providing you with military aid. But it is clear that putting pressure on Russia is much more costly than putting pressure on Ukraine. The deal is therefore on shaky ground. The plan created a situation in which Ukraine was under greater pressure than the attacker, Russia.

So would it be more realistic to force peace on Ukraine by, for example, losing territory?
Yes, exactly. The problem is that Putin set his own terms on the eve of Bürgenstock. In addition to Ukraine's de facto capitulation and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO, he demanded two things: an end to Western sanctions on Russia and international recognition of Russia's new borders. This land-for-peace solution would inflict huge moral damage. Whatever the details of this peace deal, it will show the international community that Russia's attacks are ultimately worth it.

Is there any reason to be hopeful?
For Europe, a second Trump term did not appear out of thin air. We have been with him for four years. In the best-case scenario, Europe will gain new confidence after Trump’s election. Nonetheless, the United States will remain an important partner for European countries. I don’t think these four years will fundamentally change the history of Europe. However, there is an important difference from Trump's first term as president. At that time, world politics had not yet faced fundamental challenges such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. Now the cards have actually been reshuffled.