Here's what the latest predictions say

The US presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will be decided in seven politically contested states. We show who is currently leading in the so-called “swing states.”

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In the United States, the president is not directly elected by the people. Whoever gets a majority of votes in the Electoral College, the body of electors, wins the White House. The campaign therefore focused on only a small set of politically competitive countries.

This time the group includes seven states with a total of 93 electoral votes. Without that, Kamla Harris leads voters 226 to 219 in the latest forecast from ABC election platform “538.” So she still needs 44 votes in seven battleground states to be elected. But in five contested states, Donald Trump is currently projected to be ahead.

Arizona

The “Grand Canyon State” has only recently become a swing state. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1996, the victories in recent decades have been exclusively Republican. In 2020, Democratic candidate Joe Biden once again held a narrow lead as many centrist voters felt offended by the sometimes extreme views of local Republicans. To the detriment of Harris and Democrats, immigration is the top issue in border states, and many undecideds are currently leaning toward the Republican side due to high inflation.

Georgia

After six Republican victories, Democrats captured the Peach State for the first time in 2020. Very close: Biden leads Trump by just 11,779 votes, or 0.2 percentage points. Particularly important to this success at the time was the high turnout of black voters, who made up about one-third of all voters. Polls in the spring, however, showed Biden losing support during his time in office, especially among young black people. Harris can only partially remedy this shortcoming.

michigan

The “Great Lakes State” has long been a Democratic stronghold because of its numerous automakers and factory workers, but they suddenly supported Donald Trump in 2016 due to the deep crisis in the auto industry. Four years later, however, Biden once again narrowly won, and Harris now has a slight lead in the polls. But nothing has been decided yet: the biggest uncertainty is that many Arab voters are deeply dissatisfied with the current U.S. policy in the Middle East.

nevada

Since 1976, both Republicans and Democrats have won the Silver State title six times. Recently, the “Democrats” have won four times in a row. Economic issues are particularly important in the desert state due to its heavy reliance on tourism. A slow recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment among the highest in the country could swing the pendulum in Trump's favor.

North Carolina

The state is actually considered conservative. With the exception of Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, the Tahir State has always voted for Republican candidates. But with many new voters and a high percentage of black voters, Harris and Democrats hope to surprise. Additionally, a Republican gubernatorial candidate could become a major stumbling block for Trump: Mark Robinson denies the Holocaust and describes himself as a “black Nazi.”

pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the largest and most important swing state. The “cornerstone state” is typically Democratic, but in recent polls it's an extremely close race. Harris needs to get as many votes as possible, especially in urban areas around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, because Trump will win in rural areas. Especially since the assassination of former President Butler in mid-July.

Wisconsin

Since 1988, the Badger State has been almost entirely in Democratic hands. There is one exception, however: In 2016, Donald Trump won Wisconsin even though he never led in the polls. Four years later, however, he had to admit defeat again – but only about 20,000 votes had made a difference. At present, it seems that Harris will win, also because the Democratic Party can canvass votes in large urban gathering places.

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