Trump is unlikely to like the new polls.Image: trapezoid
Iowa is a state in the Midwestern United States and is considered a conservative state, not a swing state. But a new poll suddenly shows the Democratic candidate ahead of the Republicans.
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Shortly before the U.S. presidential election, a new survey is causing a stir: Democrat Kamala Harris is ahead of her rival Donald Trump in the conservative state of Iowa, according to the survey.
In a survey conducted by local newspaper The Des Moines Register in partnership with Mediacom Iowa Poll and pollster Selzer & Company, 47% of potential voters surveyed said they wanted to vote for Harris and 44% would vote for Trump. Trump. Harris' lead was within a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Harris still trails Trump in September
Iowa is currently considered a Republican-voting state. The last Democratic victory was by Barack Obama – he won the state in 2008 and 2012. Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020.
The survey was conducted from October 28 to 31, with a total of 808 likely voters participating. It is not unusual in such surveys to have a relatively small number of respondents.
A September Des Moines Register poll showed Trump leading Harris by four points. In June, Trump even led then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by 18 percentage points.
U.S. investigations should generally be treated with caution—individual inquiries should not be taken unduly seriously. However, they can definitely reflect a trend.
The website FiveThirtyEight evaluated numerous surveys and came up with an average, still giving Trump a clear lead over Harris. Another poll released over the weekend showed Trump leading Harris by ten points in Iowa.
Iowa is not actually considered a swing state this election
The Des Moines Register reports on its current investigation:
“Surveys show that women — especially older and politically independent women — are driving the late switch to Harris.”
Neither candidate has campaigned in Iowa since the primary and has not established a local presence in the state.
National polls predict a close race between Harris and Trump in Tuesday's election (November 5). All eyes are on so-called swing states, which sometimes go Republican and sometimes go Democratic in presidential elections. They are seen as decisive in the election — Trump and Harris are also polling roughly evenly on that front. Iowa isn't actually one of the particularly competitive states this year. If Harris wins here, it would be a major success for Democrats.
Sources used:
(t-online)
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