Here's why choosing Vinicius over Rodri would be a wrong sign

One of them could be named World Footballer of the Year today: Rodri and Vinicius (right).Image: imago / midjourney / watson

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One is Manchester City's clear midfield engine, the other is Real Madrid's miracle-working. One is the best player of the European Champions and the other is the best player of the Champions League. However, by 2024, there will only be one football player left in the real world.

Niklas Helbling
Niklas Helbling

This Monday night, football's most prestigious individual award will be awarded: the Ballon d'Or. “France Football” magazine will select the professional player with the best performance from August 1, 2023 to July 31, 2024 as the World Footballer of the Year.

The nomination list includes 30 names, including superstars such as Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Granit Xhaka and the Swiss. However, the most popular are Real Madrid's Vinicius and Manchester City's Rodri. Vinicius's teammate Jude Bellingham is expected to get outside opportunities.

Nomination list.

Nomination list.Image: x

The winner is selected from the FIFA World Rankings top 100 by a journalist from each country. The deciding factors are the nominee's individual achievements, team performance and talent and sportsmanship.

Monday night awards

The Ballon d'Or will be awarded tonight in Paris. The action kicks off at 8pm and can be followed on Sky Sports News, DAZN or L'Equipe TV channels.

In addition to the World Footballer, the men's and women's World Footballer, the best goalkeeper, the best U21 player (Kopa Trophy), the best coach of the year and the best club lineup of the year are also selected.

Two Swiss players, Gregor Kerber and Jan Sommer, were also nominated for the Jacin Cup Best Goalkeeper.

There were conflicting reports beforehand about the possible winner. First of all, Marca and others said that Vinicius will win the Ballon d'Or. RMC Sport later wrote that the 24-year-old Brazilian and other Real Madrid representatives would not travel to the awards ceremony as they were sure Vinicius would leave empty-handed. Rodri, who could be out for a long time due to a torn cruciate ligament, would be the most likely winner.

If true, it would be a shame for the winger and Real Madrid, but it would be the right decision and the right signal. Because no one was as important to their team as Rodri last year – and in today's football, the World Player of the Year should be playing as a centre-forward rather than a forward.

Influence is unparalleled

Aside from the obvious statistics like goals and assists, no position has more impact than the defensive midfielder. N'Golo Kante has become France's secret hero at the 2018 World Cup. The same goes for winning the English championship with Leicester City and Chelsea in the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons, and the Champions League championship with the Blues in the 20/21 season. The year after he won the title, he was named the Premier League's best player.

September 9, 2018 - Paris, France - France's Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante celebrate the World Cup trophy after the official match between France and Netherlands in UEFA Nations League Group A at the Stade...

France's World Cup-winning secret hero is a defensive midfielder named N'Golo Kanté.Image source: imago sports photo service

Since then, the Sixers' importance has become even more important. They seal off the center and are designed to prevent the quick counter-attacks that smaller clubs increasingly rely on due to the dominance of top teams. In addition, the defensive midfielder is very important in the so-called “rest defense” – that is, defending when he has the ball, so to speak, the “rest phase” of the defense. They act as the go-to players, making sure the defense is ready even if the ball is conceded, but at the same time they can also initiate the attack.

For example, the Center Internationale des Sports Studies (CIES) in Neuchatel shows each player's impact on the game by determining how important they are to their team's success. Defensive aspects, such as intercepting the ball or winning duels on the ground and in the air, and offensive aspects, such as chance creation, dribbling power and shooting.

Rodri tops the list with an impact score of 98.5 out of 100, followed by Granit Xhaka (92.5). This is not surprising as the Spaniard and the Swiss are the two players who have touched the ball and received the most ball in the top five leagues. Vinicius is far behind with only 74.8 points – also because he has played 1,000 fewer minutes than Rodri.

Also interesting: in the top ten, there are seven midfielders, two wingers and one centre-back. The starting forward is Inter Milan's Lautaro Martinez, ranked 14th in the top five leagues.

With Rodri, it will be difficult for Manchester City and Spain to lose

Rodri's record last season was also impressive. The 28-year-old made 63 appearances for Manchester City and Spain, leaving once as a loser. The Champions League quarter-final defeat to Real Madrid and the Super Cup penalty shootout defeat to Arsenal are not included. With him, it will be difficult for Manchester City and Spain to lose.

However, without him, things looked a little different. Last season, City lost three of the four Premier League games without Rodri. He also missed the 1-0 defeat to Newcastle in the Carabao Cup. Rodri also did not feature in Fria Roja's only match against Colombia between August 2023 and July 2024. He did so by leading Spain to the European Cup and was later named the tournament's best player – despite being substituted injured at half-time in the final.

Spain's Rodri kisses his Player of the Tournament trophy after the final match between Spain and England at the UEFA Euro 2024 in Berlin, Germany, Sunday, July 14, 2024. Spanish team...

Rodri was named player of the tournament at the European Championships.Image: trapezoid

Rodri's impact on the team's success cannot be overstated.

The offense suddenly becomes valuable

Especially since he's becoming more and more important in the offense. In the first few years of his career, he rarely scored at Villarreal, Atletico Madrid and Manchester City, but now he appears more and more frequently in the opponent's penalty area. He scored 9 goals and provided 14 assists last season. The year before last, he helped Manchester City win the Champions League with a 1-0 victory over Inter Milan in the final.

A chart from The Athletic shows that Rodri has been involved in the most shots against Manchester City since Kevin De Bruyne came off the bench. Although he didn't take as many shots as other players and created fewer chances, he played an extremely important role in the game.

All of this shows that Rodri is a unique representative of the modern six and why he is one of Guardiola's favorite players. Because he does so without neglecting defensive work in any way. No City player separates opponents from the ball more often than Rodri, and he is also the one who intercepts the ball more often with almost no turnovers. With a pass completion rate of 92%, he has excellent accuracy from any distance and often carries the ball into the final third.

76ers now more expensive than forwards

How important defensive midfielders have become in recent years and the transfer fees now being paid for them show that. While the most expensive players used to be forwards, wingers and even attacking midfielders, this has changed somewhat in recent years.

Chelsea paid 121 million euros for Enzo Fernandez, their most valuable player in the 2022/23 season, and 116 million euros for Moises Caicedo. Arsenal spent $116.6 million on Declan Rice – his most expensive player in the 2023/24 season. Real Madrid also paid 80 million euros for Aureliano Chumeni, which is a lot of money for a defensive midfielder. They are all looking for their Rodri.

Comparison with Vinicius

Vinicius has undoubtedly had an outstanding season. Played 39 games for Real Madrid, contributing 24 goals and 11 assists. Therefore, he was crucial to winning the Spanish title and the UEFA Champions League. In the Premier League, he is Real's top scorer with six goals and five assists in ten games, including scoring twice in the first leg of the semi-finals and the final against Borussia Dortmund. 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund. . He was also rightly named Champions League Player of the Season.

Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior celebrates at the end of the Champions League final football match between Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid at Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday, June 1, 2024.

Vinicius also won an extremely important title.Image: trapezoid

It's a real feast for the eyes to watch him play, Vinicius is without a doubt one of the best footballers in the world. Although his antics and sometimes unsportsmanlike behavior were not popular everywhere. At the same time, when it comes to sportsmanship, one must give him credit for regularly fighting against and speaking out against racism in his sport.

But what stands out about Vinicius is that other players at Real Madrid were at least as important last season. This is not just reflected in the “impact score” determined by CIES. Arguably, defensively, the Brazilian had no influence whatsoever, while offensively, others were responsible for the Royals' success. Jude Bellingham contributed three more points, Rodrygo took the ball more into the final third and had a similar success rate in dribbling. Players like Toni Kroos will naturally be more involved in ball contact and incoming passes.

In the final analysis, it has to be said that Vinicius did not stand out in Real Madrid like Rodri did in Manchester City. De Bruyne was absent for a long time and Haaland had little impact on the game except for scoring more goals. Although Spain has excellent young stars in Lamine Yamar and Nico Williams, he is the most important player in the European Cup title race.

Therefore, with Ronaldo and Messi dominating for many years and only Modric and Benzema able to break through the square, defensive midfielder Rodri is the only correct choice for the 2024 Ballon d'Or.