The International Energy Agency (IEA) analyzes that the goal of tripling renewable energy power generation by 2030 agreed at the World Climate Conference can already be achieved. Production capacity is expected to increase 2.7 times by 2030.
This means that nearly half of global electricity demand will be met by renewable energy in 2030, the IEA announced in Paris. Climate and energy security policies in many countries make a decisive contribution to ensuring that renewable energy is available at a cost that is more competitive than fossil fuel power plants.
Gris wind farm in Obergoms, canton Valais. Image: trapezoid
This has led to new demand from the private sector and households, while industrial policy measures have encouraged the production of solar modules and wind turbines.
China and photovoltaics as drivers
The International Energy Agency sees China's development and the expansion of photovoltaics as drivers of renewable energy growth. By 2030, 60% of renewable energy expansion will occur in China, which is the fastest growing of India’s major economies.
In terms of technology, photovoltaics alone are expected to account for 80% of global renewable energy generation growth by 2030. This is a result of new large-scale solar power plants and an increase in rooftop solar systems on businesses and homes.
Despite ongoing challenges, the IEA also sees the wind industry facing growth: expansion will double between 2024 and 2030 compared with 2017 to 2023.
Expansion faster than government targets
“Renewable energy is developing faster than the targets set by governments,” said Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency. “This is not just because of efforts to reduce emissions or improve energy security; It is now the cheapest option for building new power plants in almost every country in the world.”
The goal of tripling renewable energy generation set at the United Nations climate conference in Dubai in December could be achieved if the international community does more to reduce the high financing costs of new projects in emerging and developing countries. These factors are currently slowing the growth of renewable energy in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.
The IEA report also calls on countries to strengthen the integration of variable renewable energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind energy into the power system. Recently, the proportion of unused electricity generation from renewable sources has increased significantly and has reached around ten percent in some countries.
To solve this problem, countries must increase the flexibility of their power systems. In addition, production lines must be modernized and storage capacity increased.
Increase speed using hydrogen and e-fuels
To achieve international climate goals, the IEA believes that not only must the expansion of renewable energy be accelerated, but also sustainable biofuels, biogas, hydrogen and e-fuels must be introduced. Because these fuels remain more expensive than fossil fuels, their share of global energy supply is expected to remain below 6% by 2030. (Sudan Development Authority/Africa Working Group/Department of Political Affairs)
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