Former NATO General Erhard Bühler on Ukraine War and Russian Threat

Spanish soldiers in a NATO multinational battle group. The defense alliance is facing a dilemma.Image: trapezoid

Former NATO general Erhard Bühler explained in a recent interview how he views the Russian threat to Europe. His goal was what Olaf Scholz declared to be a “turning point.”

October 27, 2024 14:59October 27, 2024 18:07

Daniel Schulte
Daniel Schulte

Former NATO general Erhard Bühler regularly provides assessments of the war in Ukraine, speaking on the podcast “What to Do, Mr. General?” The 68-year-old German military expert was interviewed by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung this week (see source).

Watson summed up the equally exciting perspective from a Swiss perspective.

Many people believe that Russia would not attack a NATO country

Erhard Bühler said:

“Before Russia invaded Ukraine, many people thought that Russia would not take this step, including me, because I saw the political and military risks that Russia faced. Many people misjudged things at the time, especially the Russians themselves, But today no one is so gullible anymore.”

Vladimir Putin himself declared in 2005 that for him the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest political disaster of this century.” If NATO's eastern member becomes its next target, allies will have to urgently provide help.

Buller also said:

“If you think Russia won't piss off NATO, I suggest you take a trip to the Baltics. These countries were once part of the Soviet Union. The fear of a Russian attack there is palpable.”

As a result, European leaders faced a scenario they had not seriously considered since the collapse of the Soviet Union: a land war against Russia. Under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, member states support each other in the event of conflict.

Fears of Russian attack are exaggerated

Former general Bueller believes there is no point in speculating on what exactly the Russian dictator is trying to achieve and what he might do next. From his perspective, there is one more crucial point:

“Russia has made it clear to the West that it is ready to take extreme measures to achieve its goals. NATO therefore has no choice but to rely on strong deterrence capabilities. We must exclude Russia from even taking measures against NATO in the Baltic, Polish or Black Sea regions. Any ideas for action.”

However, as a Bloomberg reporter noted in mid-October, the situation has become bleaker. Such a European war would likely have to be waged without the full firepower of the United States, “an indispensable ally in ensuring the region's security during the Cold War and beyond.”

China's rise as a military power and its publicly announced plans to conquer the island of Taiwan have allowed U.S. military experts to imagine a scenario in which the United States would be forced to withdraw long-range weapons from the North Atlantic in order to wage a war. East Asian War.

Forcing Ukraine to agree to a forced peace will achieve nothing

If Western military aid remains at current levels or is even reduced, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will sooner or later have to negotiate with Russian leaders to prevent a total collapse of the country.

According to the Kremlin's well-known demands, this amounts to a unilateral cession of Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine.

Erhard Bühler warned:

“But the war is not over yet. After the pause in which Russia realigns its military position, the country will extend a helping hand to the whole of Ukraine. If it succeeds, it will also have the courage to attack other countries, Moldova, Georgia, the Baltic states. “

Germany's turning point is more than just empty words

In an interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Erhard Bühler recalled the promise made by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to the leadership of the German Army in 2022 in the spirit of “Turning Point”: that the Bundeswehr would become The best-equipped armed forces in Europe and becoming “the cornerstone of Europe's conventional defense”. mainland”.

The reality is different.

«I don’t want to accuse anyone of giving up at the turning point. But decisions that should actually be made today are postponed to the future. The alliance was paralyzed. “

The time those responsible are now losing to domestic political conflicts and discussions is putting the entire turnaround plan at risk.

«Now things are serious. Things were never as serious as they are today during the Cold War. The global political situation is more unpredictable and dangerous than it was then. That's why we need to act now, not at some point. “

What does Switzerland (perhaps) do better than Germany?

Buller believed that there was always evil in the world, and if evil prevailed somewhere, you needed an armed force to protect you from it.

German military experts said:

“For me, Switzerland will always be the best example. It is a neutral country that has not had hostile neighbors for decades. Nonetheless, it has always paid special attention to its willingness to defend itself in the end. It is a good approach. Even if there is no Direct threats, you also have to be able to account for defensive capabilities. They tend to come faster than you think.”

It is worth noting that the Swiss Army Chief of Staff warned that defense capabilities are severely compromised and will continue to decline as important weapons systems are in danger of becoming completely obsolete. Meanwhile, left- and right-wing politicians in parliament and government are squabbling over the arming of the army, particularly where the funding will come from.

source

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