As byproducts of the war in Ukraine, landmines left by Russian troops on Ukrainian soil are exacerbating the “breadbasket of the world” and shortages of grain and cooking oils on the international market. This is the conclusion of a study carried out by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in London, in collaboration with the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
In a recent interview with Donbas Realii, the regional news broadcaster of the Ukrainian service of Radio Free Europe (RFE), a farmer in the country described how he had to “pull out the mines with his bare hands.” His Life” to remove the artifacts left by the Russians who occupied the area.
Even after the withdrawal of Russian troops from parts of Ukraine, farmers still face difficulties, forced to sow their grains and oilseeds in fields damaged by mines.
On October 17 and 18, Switzerland and Ukraine jointly hosted the Ukraine Mine Action Conference (UMAC2024), which aims to help demine another 5 million hectares, or 10% of its arable land, in the face of Russian offensive. In addition, it is necessary to check the level of contamination by mines, unexploded artillery and other explosives in 139.3 thousand square kilometers (almost 25% of the entire country's territory).
Before the Russian invasion of February 24, 2022, agriculture was the mainstay of the Ukrainian economy, responsible for almost 11% of the national GDP. By the end of 2023, this figure dropped to 7.4%.
According to data from a report by the Tony Blair Institute, landmines annually compromise the equivalent of 5.6% of the country's GDP, or 11.2 billion dollars (63.2 billion reais). Most of the decline was due to a decline in agricultural exports and one of the main reasons for Ukraine's growing economic deficit.
The “breadbasket of the world” under environmental threat
Ukraine's food exports are unlikely to return to pre-war levels, even in areas where Russian troops have been forced to withdraw due to the presence of mines.
Mriya Aid, a Canadian organization, helps remove landmines. Although it does not work directly with farmers, it helps train deminers (soldiers responsible for demining) and provides funds and equipment to remove antiquities in different parts of the country.
According to its director, Lesya Granger, demining in Ukraine is important to prevent future environmental damage, such as “the leaching of toxic substances into soil and water, or the release of harmful particles into the atmosphere due to explosions.”
Ukraine's vast expanse of fertile black soil has earned it the nickname “the breadbasket of the world.” Freeing land from mines and other land pollution is essential to restoring its share of grain exports.
Countries in Asia and Africa, for example, bought more than 90% of Ukrainian wheat exported between 2016 and 2021. However, after the 2022 invasion, more than a quarter of their land was left unused by war, an area equivalent. Belgium.
The effects of the war in Eastern Europe on the food market were also felt, at least temporarily, in Brazil. In July 2023, the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Carlos Favaro, commented to CNN: “We are not self-sufficient. We export a little and buy a little more. Therefore, Brazil still depends on 5.5 million tons of wheat. [da Ucrânia].”
The region most affected by the drop in exports is Africa
Despite everything, Ukraine remains a major global food producer. In fiscal year 2023-24 (the 12-month period in which the crop is grown, harvested and sold), Ukraine exported 57.5 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds, with Spain, Egypt and Indonesia the largest importers. Grain Association.
The situation is particularly delicate in Africa, where countries such as Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo depend on Ukraine and Russia for more than 75% of their grain imports. Shortly after the start of the Russian invasion, between February and March 2022, the world food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) increased by 12.6%, the highest since its creation in the 1990s.
In 2023, Ukraine made significant progress in reviving its exports, thanks to an agreement with Russia that established the Black Sea Grains Initiative, allowing exports from the deep-water port of Odessa. When the deal expired in August, Ukraine created a new export corridor at Moscow's behest.
But weakening Ukrainian exports pose a threat to African countries, according to a report by the African Development Bank. Average consumer prices on the continent will grow by 17% in 2023. While East Africa saw inflation peak at 26.5%, countries like Sudan peaked at over 200%.
Walter Liel, director of the Research and Exchange Center at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, explains that Algeria and Libya, among others, have been able to moderate the impact of price increases with revenues from oil and gas exports. But for Yemen, Lebanon or Sudan, “international food aid is critical.”
It is impossible to predict when the situation will return to normal.
Ukrainian economist Oleg Bentsyn reminds us that landmines are one of the many problems currently affecting agriculture: “Landmines can be removed and international funding obtained, but drones can still attack, putting workers at risk.” .
He considers it important to restore the water supply and rebuild the Jakovka dam, destroyed in June 2023, which supplies water to Crimea, the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and the entire region. Additionally, the war caused a shortage of agricultural labor.
“Whether people leave or are recruited, the land remains idle. Whether the landmine is removed or not, there is no one to deal with it. “There are places in eastern Ukraine that are deserted and only the former residents remain.”
There is currently no way to predict when Ukraine will be free of landmines and explosives left over from the war. Even national officials differ in their estimates: Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko says demining could take 10 years, former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov talks about 30 years.
That is why the war in Ukraine “will worsen food security,” predicts Walter Leal. “In countries with particularly vulnerable populations, rising prices for grains, vegetable oils and fertilizers will lead to higher food prices, higher inflation and the potential for political instability.”
