World leaders descend on the Russian city of Kazan today for a summit of BRICS – a major diplomatic event that Vladimir Putin hopes will be a milestone in his effort to dismantle the political and economic dominance of his Western foes.
The summit, running from October 22-24 will be the biggest held in Russia since Putin ordered troops to storm across the border of Ukraine more than two-and-a-half years ago.
Moscow is keen to show the West that attempts to isolate and punish it with brutal economic sanctions have failed.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan – the president of NATO member Turkey – are just some of the powerful figures scheduled to join the event.
Even UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is heading to Kazan despite the International Criminal Court having issued an arrest warrant for Putin on charges of war crimes.
Putin is keen to discuss a raft of topics, including the prospect of developing a new international payment network to rival the Western-led SWIFT system.
But the spectre of the Ukraine war looms large over the summit, and the Russian President will likely have to contend with pressure from BRICS partners and other invitees to bring the conflict to a close.
Meanwhile, Putin’s intent to use the alliance as a tool for geopolitical leverage to undermine the West may not be shared by other members of the group who themselves are wracked by long-held disputes and competing interests.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin meets with the heads of leading media outlets from the BRICS member countries ahead of this week’s summit
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet at a ceremony in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 9, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping
The spectre of the Ukraine war looms large over the BRICS summit
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa with fellow BRICS leaders President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President of China Xi Jinping, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pose for a family photo
The acronym BRIC was originally coined in 2001 by Goldman Sachs banker Jim O’Neill, who predicted that Brazil, Russia, India and China would be the world’s largest economies by 2050.
In 2009 – in the wake of the global financial crisis – the leaders of these nations convened at the inaugural BRIC summit in Russia. The S was added when South Africa joined one year later.
In its infancy, this loose collective appeared to have little to no ambition to challenge US hegemony or undermine the Western-led economic foundations represented by the World Bank or International Monetary Fund (IMF).
But the grouping still had massive assets – the five countries of BRICS already account for more than 40 per cent of the world’s population and about a third of its GDP, far exceeding that of the G7 countries.
Things are very different now.
Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates were welcomed into the fold at the start of the year, and Saudi Arabia is also poised to join.
With the addition of these oil and resource-rich nations, the bloc’s economic power is now enormous.
And although BRICS was initially created as an apolitical economic alliance, the Kremlin sees the group as a vehicle for major geopolitical upheaval.
For many developing nations, BRICS represents an attractive alternative to a Western-led economic system of today which gives America and her allies massive influence over the way the rest of the world trades and receives financial support.
BRICS has its own alternative to the IMF – the New Development Bank (NDB) – which it presents as a beacon of hope for developing countries seeking financial assistance without the ‘strings’ attached to loans from the IMF and World Bank.
There has even been talk of BRICS countries developing a brand-new shared currency, similar to the Euro, that would allow members to break free from the dollar.
This would go hand-in-hand with a new payment system enabling countries to conduct major financial transactions without the West’s SWIFT system, from which Russia was excluded as part of sanctions over Ukraine.
‘We believe that BRICS is a prototype of multipolarity, a structure uniting the Southern and Eastern hemispheres on the principles of sovereignty and respect for each other,’ Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said this week.
‘What BRICS is doing is gradually – brick by brick – building a bridge to a more democratic and just world order,’ he added.
But as the role of BRICS grows from a non-aligned economic coalition into an instrument of political influence, differences between its members and competing national interests are brought into sharp focus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (L) looks on, while visiting the Primakov Gymnasium, October 21 2024
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands in St. Petersburg, Russia
An aerial view shows the destroyed city of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv Region near the border with Russia, on October 2, 2024 in Vovchansk, Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian pose for a photo at their meeting in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on Oct. 11, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shake hands as they pose for photos during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 3, 2024
Before Putin’s dream of undermining the Western-led order of the world can become a reality, BRICS countries must navigate a series of obstacles, any one of which could significantly restrict its progress – or at worst, cause the organisation to crumble.
Firstly, the very presence of economic powerhouse China as a member of BRICS calls into question the Kremlin’s legitimacy as a self-styled leader of the bloc.
Many analysts point out that Moscow in recent years has become somewhat subservient to Beijing, with the ‘no limits’ partnership between Putin and Xi growing ever more asymmetrical.
China has become Russia’s largest trading partner following Western sanctions and now enjoys huge discounts on energy exports while supplying essential technology and consumer goods.
Beijing is also ruthlessly pursuing its own interests in the Indo-Pacific, Africa and South America, using its economic and technological might to muscle in on regions where Russia is desperate to maintain its influence.
Although both countries are united in their mutual disdain for the West, primarily the US, China is building a considerable economic and strategic advantage over Russia that could see Putin’s influence in BRICS fade over time.
Meanwhile, India – another emerging power that forms part of BRICS – is locked in a long-standing border dispute with China that has significantly strained bilateral relations.
New Delhi in recent years has also forged a close strategic partnership with Washington, cooperating closely in technology research and manufacturing and forming tighter defence ties.
Indian Prime Minister Modi evidently does not share Putin’s vision of a BRICS designed to challenge and undermine the West, and is likely to put up fierce resistance if Putin insists on forging this path.
His nation is also pushing to become the leader of developing nations in South and East Asia – which of course puts Modi’s government on a crash course with China’s President Xi.
Moving forward, the addition of Iran, the UAE and potentially Saudi Arabia to the bloc is almost certain to cause yet more internal tension.
There is little love lost between the Gulf Arab nations and the Islamic Republic, and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East is sure to complicate relations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a plenary session of the BRICS Business Forum in Moscow, Russia, 18 October 2024
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives at the Kazan airport to attend the BRICS summit, hosted in the city of Kazan from October 22 to 24. Modi does not share Putin’s vision of a BRICS dedicated to undermining the West
China is becoming more politically and militarily assertive in the Indo-Pacific
Despite the evident cracks appearing in the BRICS wall, Russian officials and analysts are insistent the summit showcases the Kremlin’s enduring power on the world stage and the failure of Western sanctions to isolate Putin.
By gathering BRICS in Kazan, the Kremlin ‘aims to show that not only is Russia not isolated, it has partners and allies,’ Moscow-based political analyst Konstantin Kalachev said.
The Kremlin wants to show an ‘alternative to Western pressure… and that the multipolar world is a reality,’ Kalachev said, referring to Moscow’s efforts to shift power away from the West to other regions.
Putin himself told reporters from BRICS nations that ‘BRICS does not put itself into opposition to anyone’ and that ‘this is an association of states that work together based on common values, a common vision of development and, most importantly, the principle of taking into account each other’s interests.’
By contrast, Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed the summit as a forum for Russia to push its narrative around the war in Ukraine.
‘If Putin achieves his crazy goals – geopolitical, military, ideological and economic – it will create an overwhelming impression among other potential aggressors, particularly in the West, Indo-Pacific and Africa, that wars of aggression could be beneficial for them as well,’ he said.
Western analysts meanwhile recognise the emergence of BRICS as an indicator of the trend towards a multipolar world order, but remain sceptical of Russia’s efforts to encourage its members to bring about major geopolitical change.
Callum Fraser, Research Fellow in Russian Security at the RUSI think tank, told MailOnline: ‘BRICS is just as much a symptom of emerging multipolarity as it is a catalyst.
‘It exists primarily because each of its member states is looking to shape the international system to cater for their own national interests – these states consider the Western-led system to not adequately cater to their interests, so have created an alternative organisation to do so.
‘BRICS members are not monolithic, they do not all share Russia’s goal of undermining the West. However, Russia’s principal partners, Iran and China, will be seeking to move the global centre Eastwards. This means that BRICS will be a platform within which, discussions over de-dollarisation and subverting Western dominance will take place.
‘Putin’s primary focus will be the creation of an alternative payment system, either using a BRICS currency, cryptocurrency, or an alternative to SWIFT. Other states within BRICS will be considering this, but whether or not it will be an achievable goal of this year’s summit remains to be seen.’
