A difficult week for Indian diplomacy began on Monday with an explosive Canadian press conference. Senior Canadian police officials have accused Indian diplomats of engaging in “criminal” activities on Canadian soil, ranging from assassinations and targeted killings to extortion, intimidation and coercion against members of the Canadian Sikh community.
They claimed to be involved not only in the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, but also Indian diplomats, including the High Commissioner. The shooting outside a gurudwara outside Vancouver last June was linked to other murders on Canadian soil. They accused the diplomats of even working with a gang led by India's worst mafia boss to do their dirty work.
Two days later, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau doubled down on his claims. Testifying before a public hearing, he said Canada had clear intelligence linking Indian consular officials to “drive-by shootings, home invasions, violent extortions and murders across Canada.” India said Trudeau had made a “terrible mistake” by violating Canada's sovereignty.
It was a significant escalation of a diplomatic dispute that strained relations between India and Canada last year when Trudeau took to Parliament to say there were “credible allegations” implicating the Indian government in Nijjar's murder, an allegation India denied. Ridiculous”.
Since then, accusations of a transnational campaign of violence and harassment against India have emerged not only in Canada, but also in the United States, the United Kingdom and Pakistan, where prominent Sikh activists say their lives have been threatened.
Western officials and the Sikh community have been exposed, they say, by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government's policy of transnational repression targeting the Sikh diaspora, though often clumsily implemented. Canadian officials say they have evidence that the threats and harassment orders came from the highest levels of the Indian government. As for the powerful Home Minister, Amit Shah, considered Modi's right-hand man.
India has repeatedly denied all allegations, insisting that such killings are not government policy, and Canada's latest accusations have been met with a flurry of angry denials. New Delhi described the claims as “outrageous accusations” and “ridiculous” statements, and accused Trudeau of a political vendetta. They also accused Canada of being a safe haven for Sikh terrorists.
But on Friday morning, India woke up to new accusations, this time from the United States. Vikash Yadav, an “Indian official,” was accused of plotting to kill a prominent Sikh activist and American citizen, Gurpadwant Singh Bannun, in New York last year. At the time the assassination was planned, Yadav was working as an intelligence officer in the office of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and was a long-time employee of the Indian government.
The new indictment added more details to the alleged murder plot against Bannun, initially revealed by U.S. Justice Department prosecutors late last year.
Like a B-movie script, American investigators alleged that an Indian agent in New Delhi – previously identified as CC1, but now identified as Yadav – hired an Indian middleman in New York to help orchestrate the plot to kill to Pannu. . Banun, a lawyer and American citizen, is a known Sikh separatist and has been designated a terrorist by the Indian government.
However, the plot is said to have been foiled after the assassin became an American undercover officer recruited to kill Yadav and his middleman Pannu. Nikhil Gupta, the alleged middleman, fled to the Czech Republic, where he was arrested and later extradited to the United States. There he pleaded not guilty. On Friday, the FBI issued a wanted notice for Yadav and the United States is expected to request his extradition from India, where he is believed to still be “at large.”
India has tried to portray the Indian and Canadian incidents as unrelated, but according to American investigators, they are inextricably linked. As the Bannoon murder plot was being planned, days before Nijjar was shot dead, Gupta mentioned a “big target” in Canada. Later, hours after Nijjar's death, Yadav allegedly sent a video clip of Nijjar's dead body to his intermediary.
The Justice Department made clear that it believes Bannoun's murder is “an important example” of a growing trend of transnational repression, defined as foreign governments taking violent and illegal actions beyond their own borders. They also insisted on holding those responsible accountable “regardless of their position or proximity to power”, without directly referring to the geopolitical implications at play.
India is keen to deny allegations that it has become a rogue international actor illegally violating the sovereignty of not one but two of its Western allies. Not long ago, such assassinations were not considered part of India's intelligence playbook. But since coming to power a decade ago, Modi's powerful nationalist agenda has come to define his agenda at home and abroad as he tries to propel India to superpower status.
An earlier investigation by The Guardian linked India to 20 border killings in Pakistan since 2020 and described how the Modi government had been emboldened to carry out attacks against dissidents on foreign soil. They cited the notorious Israeli spy agency Mossad and Saudi journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi, murdered in the Saudi embassy in 2018, as examples of direct imitation.
“What the Saudis did was very effective,” an intelligence official told The Guardian earlier this year. “Not only do you get rid of your enemy, but you also send a warning message to the people who are working against you. All intelligence agencies are doing this. Our nation cannot be strong without power over our enemies. Officially, the Indian government has repeatedly denied that this is its policy.
In both Canada and the United States, the allegations have yet to be proven in court, and Canada has yet to press charges against any Indian government officials, naming them as “persons of interest” in the case.
But any acknowledgment of the allegation would confirm a radical rethinking of the role of India's foreign intelligence agencies under the Modi government. Aimed at everyone from opposition politicians to activists and NGOs, Modi's crackdown, which has long suppressed domestic dissent, has now crossed international borders and is targeting Sikhs in particular. The Khalistan separatist movement, which is very popular among the diaspora.
There is a marked difference in how India responded to the two events, which observers say is a sign of divergent geopolitical agendas. As for Canada, analysts say India has nothing to lose by refusing to cooperate with the investigation, while India has insisted there is no evidence.
However, India could hardly try to create a similar adversary for Washington. In the wake of Bannoon's allegations, they set up a high-level investigation into the US allegations that reached Washington this week. India's Ministry of External Affairs has also confirmed that Yadav is no longer a government employee.
The White House has so far tried to take a similarly careful diplomatic course so as not to distance itself from India, an important strategic and economic ally. But the Justice Department has made clear in its statement of objections that it will not allow geopolitics to interfere with the investigation of the case.
Attorney General Mateo G. Olson said: “Governments around the world considering such crimes, and the communities they target, have no doubt that the Department of Justice is committed to disrupting and exposing these conspiracies. .”
