For anyone who pays any attention to movies, it's no secret that in the case of “Joker: Folie a Deux”, or “Joker 2”, not everything went smoothly at the beginning. Director Todd Phillips' follow-up to his 2019 hit version of the DC Comics villain was essentially completely panned by most critics and audiences alike. Those who decided to watch the video mostly seem to be dissatisfied customers. This put an end to the box office prospects of the film, which is now on life support after its second weekend. So it should come as no surprise that Warner Bros. he will lose a lot of money on this – and when we say a lot of money, we mean it Very financial.
A recent report from Variety details just how bad the financial situation of “Joker: Folie a Deux” is. According to the website, after its second weekend in cinemas, the film has so far earned $165 million worldwide, including $51.5 million domestically. By comparison, the original “Joker” grossed over $1 billion worldwide, grossing nearly $250 million worldwide after just three days of release, including $96.2 million domestically. To make it worse? The original had a budget of $60 million – a bargain for a comic book movie – while the sequel cost a whopping $190-200 million. Remember, this was before marketing, which cost an estimated $100 million.
So where does this leave Warner Bros.? The website reports that the film will lose between $150 and $200 million when shown in theaters. It says the break-even point globally is around $450 million and won't get anywhere near that level. “Joker 2” suffered a historic second-weekend box office decline as lousy word of mouth caught up with the film. For what it's worth, WB pegs the break-even point at $375 million. Either way, the movie still doesn't come close to that level, and the math doesn't really add up when we start breaking it all down. This is bad news in almost every respect.
Joker: Folie a Deux is an unforced error of epic proportions
For those who don't regularly track ticket sales, here's a quick primer on how it all works using some mathematical rule of thumb. Theaters keep about half of the money from ticket sales. “Joker 2” is currently estimated to finish its run with approximately $210 million worldwide. This would mean a return of approximately $105 million to WB. That would be enough to cover marketing costs, leaving a budget to recover that would be close to $200 million. So Variety's math works.
Admittedly, it's difficult to understand how the studio broke even at an estimated $375 million. It is quite possible that this number represents the entire period of the film's potential profit. Let's not forget that it will soon be available on VOD, after which it will be streamed on Max and will be released on 4K/Blu-ray/DVD (which can actually be pre-ordered on Amazon). Theater is not the whole picture. Unfortunately, there are some caveats to be made in this regard regarding this film.
“Folie a Deux” has a historically bad D CinemaScore and has a terrible rating on Rotten Tomatoes, so there's no indication that audiences at home will embrace Phillips' film any more than theater audiences did. As we've seen time and time again, movies that are well-received in theaters perform better on VOD, Blu-ray, and any other revenue-generating market. As such, “Joker 2” probably won’t stream too many Blu-ray discs compared to something like “The Batman,” for example. Additionally, the main revenue driver for comic book movies is usually merchandise. It's hard to imagine children wanting an Arthur Fleck figurine for Christmas. Again, this is all bad news.
But it didn't have to be this way. WB could have stepped in at some point and either de-risked the budget or questioned Phillips' actions. This is a complete disaster that simply didn't need to happen. Of course, any studio will make a sequel to a mega-grossing $1 billion hit, but it's hard to imagine it getting any worse. This will probably be a warning for many years to come.
“Joker: Folie a Deux” is now in cinemas.
