Novak Djokovic's results against Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz – a small part of a big problem

Nearly two decades since the last time something like this happened, Novak Djokovic occupies a place in men's tennis that is all too familiar to him. By a distance, he is the third best player in the world.

In the summer of 2007, shortly after turning 20, Djokovic reached the semifinals of the French Open and Wimbledon, before reaching the final of the US Open. It was number 3 in the world throughout July, dropped to 4th place for a week in August, and then stayed in 3rd place until… May. From 2009.

On his way were Rafael Nadal, who defeated him in the semifinals of the French Open and Wimbledon, and Roger Federer, who said goodbye to him in straight sets in New York. With the exception of his 2008 Australian Open title, defeats to Nadal and Federer defined Djokovic's career from that summer through 2011. The pair defeated him several more times in the closing stages of majors between 2008 and 2010, with Djokovic recording two victories in their tournaments. against them during these events.

Now that the 2024 season is coming to an end, Djokovic has done this to Jannik Sinner AND Carlos Alcaraz before him.

On Sunday, Sinner defeated Djokovic in straight sets in the final of the Shanghai Masters, a tournament Djokovic has won four times, more than any other player, with a record of 39-6. Sinner has beaten him twice this year, three times in a row and in four of the last five ATP meetings; during this time, Djokovic also lost consecutive Wimbledon finals to Alcaraz. According to Opta, Sinner is only the sixth player to win three matches in a row at the ATP level against Djokovic:

Djokovic beat Alcaraz 7-6(3), 7-6(2) to win Olympic gold in August, but has won just three sets in five matches against the top two this year. Two of them made it to the Olympic finals, while the other suffered an otherwise straight four-set defeat to Sinner at the Australian Open.

Sinner and Alcaraz also split four Grand Slams this year, making it just the second time since 2010 that he has failed to win a calendar-year title.

Djokovic reiterated on Sunday that Grand Slam titles motivate him to continue his career at the age of 37 because he has won everything there is to win. “Right now it's really about the Grand Slams and how far I can raise the bar,” he said at a news conference.

The Serb needs one more major to break Margaret Court's record of 24, nine of which she won before she turned professional, and which she equaled when she won the US Open last year. Until the end of 2024 and into 2025, he will have to reconcile maintaining his level and fitness in these four fields with the knowledge that without the ranking points gained in other events, his meetings with Sinner and Alcaraz in these fields will take place earlier and earlier rounds.

Djokovic's semifinal defeat to Sinner was his first defeat at the Australian Open – where he is a 10-time champion – in six years. Djokovic missed a break point for just the second time in his Grand Slam career, and his 17.2 percent of first-serve return points was his third-worst mark in 2024.

On Sunday in Shanghai, perhaps the greatest returner in the history of the sport had similar struggles, this time winning just 34.6 percent of second-serve points, his third-worst performance of 2024. And while most opponents give way to Djokovic's greater advantage, he is solid in key moments , Sinner didn't do it. It was Djokovic, not Sinner, who made the decisive error in the decisive first-set tiebreak.

In the match against Alcaraz at Wimbledon, an admittedly not fully fit Djokovic again made a weak comeback. He won 16.1 percent of first-serve points, his second-lowest mark of the year, and said after the match that he had never seen the young Spaniard serve so well.

Djokovic also had a terrible serve. He scored 40 percent on his second serve, his second-lowest mark in 2024 and significantly worse than his yearly average of 55.9 percent. The scoreline of 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(4) on the day probably flattered the defeated finalist, with Alcaraz destroying Djokovic's serve at 4-4 in the third set, after having dominated the previous four service games played. To defeat Alcaraz in the Olympic final, Djokovic played his best match of the year in the tournament that was most important to him, raising his level in two overtimes, especially in the second. Alcaraz, who missed all eight break points in the match, lost his advantage in both overtime and during those break points.

GO DEEPER

Tennis tends to pass the torch. Carlos Alcaraz is on the run from this

Djokovic's problem is that Sinner and Alcaraz are performing at such a level that there is little he can do in terms of preparing for them with match practices that don't involve playing significant matches against them. His relatively modest schedule allowed him to stay in good shape, while at the same time he easily progressed to the main competition in the first week and prepared for matches, winning in the first rounds. He did it at this year's French Open, suffering only a medial meniscus tear, from which he recovered and reached the Wimbledon final. He also did this at the US Open before meeting an inspired Alexei Popyrin and failing to raise his level to meet the challenge.

Djokovic has played 12 tournaments this year, compared to 14 for Sinner and 16 for Alcaraz (counting last month's Davis Cup qualifiers as one event rather than two separate matches). Djokovic is likely to end the year with 14 events, the same as in 2023 and two more than the year before when he missed the Australian swing due to his Covid-19 vaccination status. The year before, Djokovic played 13 events.

This very consistent approach generally led to consistently great results, but it was his world ranking and points earned from consistently winning titles that allowed him to do so without the risk of facing the best players before the final stages of events.

Sinner's defeat of Djokovic in Melbourne turned out to be a breakthrough moment in 2024 (Daniel Pockett / Getty Images)

Perhaps this will change soon.

Djokovic has amassed 3,910 ranking points so far in 2024, winning just one event and zero ATP titles – his lowest result since 2005. This puts him in sixth place heading into Turin – the Italian city that hosts the season-ending Tour de France. The finals are taking place. He is currently No. 4 in the ATP World Rankings, behind Alexander Zverev, who is ahead of Djokovic in points but not on-court quality. Djokovic defends 1,000 of those points at the Paris Masters, which starts on October 28, where he is the reigning champion. He is not expected to play in any further events in 2024.

His performance also deteriorated. He won 80 percent of his games in 2024 (37-9), compared to 89 percent (56-7) last year. It's his lowest winning percentage in a calendar year since 2010, when he won 77 percent of his matches – the last season before Djokovic donned his superhero cape and soared into the stratosphere. His 2011, in which he won a staggering 92 percent (70-6) of his matches, was one of the best years for an individual in the history of men's tennis.

At age 37, it seems unlikely that Djokovic would want to reduce the number of tournaments he enters to be more competitive in majors, but without ranking points his ranking will decline. If his ranking drops, his seeding in Grand Slam and Masters 1000 tournaments will drop. If his seedings in Grand Slam and Masters 1000 tournaments drop, he will face Alcaraz or Sinner earlier and earlier in the events he most wants to win.

Even seeding between five and eight players at the Australian Open would now mean a possible quarterfinal with one or the other, and he would only need to drop one place from his current fourth spot to face such a scenario.

Djokovic was phlegmatic about last weekend's defeat to Sinner, saying: “As long as I perform like I did this week and I think I will be able to face the great players. As long as this continues, I think I will continue to feel the need to continue competing and the motivation to stay on the field. We'll see how long it takes.

While the chance to take out Sinner and Alcaraz – who were five and four years old respectively when Djokovic first became world No. 3 – should be a big motivation, if their losses become chronic, it will quickly become depressing. A lot happened last week with the retirement of Rafael Nadal and what it means for Djokovic as the last of the sport's Big Three as Federer hangs up his racket in 2022.

After hearing the news about Nadal, Djokovic said in an on-court interview in Shanghai: “I still like to compete, but a part of me left with them, a big part of me.”

Djokovic will be defending 1,000 ranking points when the Paris Masters begins in late October (Zhang Lintao/Getty Images)

This is actually the third member of the group whose experience may be more relevant.

Between Wimbledon in 2012 and the Australian Open in 2017, Federer did not win a Grand Slam title. For much of that period, he was in a similar situation to Djokovic's now – the third-best player in the world, but with two rivals a level above him. One of those rivals was Djokovic, who defeated Federer in three Grand Slam finals between Wimbledon in 2014 and the US Open a year later. Nadal defeated him in the semi-finals of the 2014 Australian Open. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka were other complicating factors during these years.

Federer, who was in Shanghai for Sunday's final, could offer Djokovic some advice on how to survive when younger rivals emerge – especially as he has had to deal with the Big One becoming the Big Two in the mid-to-late 21st century. and then the Big Three. .

There was no indication that Djokovic was thinking about the end.

“I don't know what the future holds, I'll just try to go with the flow and see how I feel at that moment,” he said on Sunday. “I still plan on competing and playing next season and yeah, let's see how far I go.”

Djokovic dissolved one duopoly to launch his career.

As he nears his final act, he will need to repeat this trick to prolong it.

(Top photo: Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)