Atlanta Hawks 2024-25 season preview: Why the stakes are high for Trae Young and Co.

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We present the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy predictions for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

ATLANTA HAWKS

End of year 2023–24

Off-season moves

• Enrichment: Zaccharie Risacher, Nikola Đurišić, Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, David Roddy, Keaton Wallace, Dominick Barlow

• Subtraction: Dejounte Murray, Saddiq Bey, Wesley Matthews, Bruno Fernando, Trent Forrest, AJ Griffin, Dylan Windler

• Complete squad

The big question: Can Atlanta build a decent defense around Trae Young?

I know: not a very original question. But despite producing the All-Star pick-and-roll dynamo three top-10 finishes in offensive efficiency in six pro seasons, Atlanta has won just 45% of its games since writing Young. The only season in which he advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs? You guessed it: the only one in which he displayed league-average defense.

So: unless the Hawks intend to trade Young (and it's a safe bet they won't, judging by the fact that he moved his backcourt partner instead apparently in order to get back more than what they could get back by flipping the remaining $138 million on Trae's contract) and if they don't intend to tank (safe bet considering Spurs are still in control of their 2025, 2026 I First-round picks in 2027 with Murray traded in 2022), then they have to try to make it quite good. (What a concept!) I To appears to require building a tighter defense than a unit that has finished in the bottom five in points allowed five of the last seven seasons.

The good news: Quin Snyder has some tools to deal with.

Jalen Johnson raised eyebrows with his offensive breakthrough in his third season: 16 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game, shooting 68% at the rim and 38% on three-pointers after halftime. But the 22-year-old with a 6-foot-9, 220-pound frame and a 7-foot wingspan made his presence felt on the other side of the court as well, averaging 4.4 steals, blocks and deflections combined per 36 minutes on the court.

A player with the size and speed to defend any forward who also grabs a quarter of the available defensive rebounds can help the team simply by taking up space. With Johnson on the floor, this was largely allowed by the Hawks' inept defense, almost four fewer points per 100 possessions than when he was absent.

The return of the Murray trade should also be helpful. The veteran Nance brings wisdom, leadership versatility and active hands, consistently posting elite steal rates for the big man. The prize, however, may be former shuttler Daniels, a 6-foot-8 Australian with a 6-foot-11 wingspan, enough speed to handle smaller balls, enough strength to form bigger wings and a penchant. for wreaking havoc; among players who have logged 1,000 minutes, only Matisse Thybulle, Alex Caruso and Dennis Smith Jr. They recorded the same number of steals and deflections per minute last season.

If Daniels can get his jumper online – just 31.2% from deep like a Pelican and 36.7% from short corners – he could be a perfect fit next to Young in the backcourt, taking on the toughest defensive duties while also serving as a complementary playmaker and the attacker without the ball.

Johnson, Daniels, Nance and De'Andre Hunter are multiple defensive options that could be deployed in Young's isolation project. And if top overall pick Risacher, a 6-foot-8, 215-pound swingman with a 6-foot-10 wingspan who looks like a versatile and intelligent defender, looks as good in that regard offensively as he did in his preseason debut …

…then this could be the best combination of length, physicality and athleticism that Atlanta has given Young. Make some improvements in ball-handling, combine it with solid rim protection from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, and perhaps the Hawks will move out of the bottom ten in defensive efficiency.

And with a stable floor under him, maybe Young – who is now one of only three players in history with multiple seasons in which he averaged 25 points and 10 assists per game, and who had the Hawks offense humming like the goddamn Celtics in minutes he last season played without Murray…

…may offer more reminders of why Atlanta went all out to build around him in the first place.

Best case scenario

The new additions provide something like the 18th best defense in the NBA, which means this edition of the Hawks is a bit more serious than the last few iterations. With that steady shot behind him, Young delivers a face-melting solo during the regular season, leading the league in scoring I assists, putting Atlanta back in the top three in points scored per possession. With Trae at the helm, Johnson getting (some) All-Star thrills, Risacher showing promise, and Bogdan Bogdanovic vying for Sixth Man of the Year, the Hawks went over .500 to 46 wins, which at least eliminated them from lower half of the play-in bracket. Progress!

If everything falls apart

Another disastrous defense leads to an increasingly rancid atmosphere as the crippling feeling of not being able to build a winner around Young pervades the organization and fan base. We're reminded that progress isn't linear as Johnson looks to build on his Near Most Improved Player score now that he has a more prominent place on the scouting report. Risacher hisses more often than he flashes, leading to another lament of his dismal luck in victory Ten lottery. The Hawks are a little better defensively and a little worse offensively, resulting in another mid-30s win followed by either entering the game virtually by default or, worse yet, failing to do so, giving Spurs a golden ticket in the Cooper lottery Flagg.

Spin fantasy

There is precedent for Young being worthy of a first-round fantasy draft pick. Young ranked 12th in per-game value and fourth in total value in 2021-22 before Murray moved to Pool A. Now that Murray is gone, Young can be expected to have a usage rate above 30% and averaging 25 points with 10 assists this season.

Johnson missed 26 games last season, but he has an elite fantasy profile. It will cost a player late in the third round, while Bogdanovic's ADP remains too low despite trending upwards over the past week towards mid-eighth round selections. Bogi is a good source of points, threes and steals. Keep an eye on Daniels as a winger late in the round.

I still draft more stock Okongwu (ADP 117) than Capela (91.5), mainly because of ADP. Capela is an automatic double-double. I became concerned about the decline in his minutes over the past four seasons and the Hawks' long-term financial commitment to Okongwu. Okongwu was efficient on a per-minute basis while also helping fantasy managers with FG%, blocks and rebounds. — And Tytus

2024–25 schedule

Moving on from Murray meant a drop in talent, but I think this squad fits better than its predecessor, which won 36 games even though Young, Johnson, Okongwu and Hunter combined to miss 106 games. A little more good health, a little better depth, and a little better efficiency in critical moments – Atlanta was just 21-26 in games where they were five points short in the last five minutes – might have made for a slightly better result. I'll take charge (though not too much).