ERIE, Pa. — Dr. Theresa Wheeling has always been a registered Republican. She voted for the third party in 2016 and then for Donald Trump in 2020 because she felt it would be “hypocritical” for her children to vote against elected office, which was related to several policies and promises of the Trump administration.
But a day after the Supreme Court struck down federal abortion protections established in Roe v. Wade, Wheeling changed party affiliation. And this time he votes for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I was embarrassed to call myself a Republican,” Wheeling told NBC News. “Four years ago, I might have said no (to Harris), but now I think he’s more moderate. And I absolutely cannot vote for Trump.”
Voters like Wheeling, the county and the state — next to Erie, Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground state — could decide the election. White women are a large voting bloc, and since 2000, the Republican Party's presidential ticket has won a majority of them. In 2016, the group helped launch Trump into the presidency. In 2020, he improved his margin among them, although he lost the race for re-election.
But a new poll from Galvanize Action — a swap group that has been monitoring the attitudes of more than 6,000 white women in 10 swing states since June — shows the group could be ready for a 2024 takeover.
“We’re seeing such a huge divide (between men and women),” said Jackie Payne, founder and executive director of Galvanize Action, that it’s truly becoming a women’s election. “And so we see Harris and Trump competing for the vote. of moderate white women.”
The group's September poll, first shared with NBC News and conducted 10 days after the only debate between Trump and Harris, showed Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump in that group, 46%-44%, within the margin search error. In June's Galvanize Action poll, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee, he and Trump were in a dead heat among white women.
“Then we started to see that as soon as Harris entered the race, they started to lean toward Harris a little bit,” Payne said, adding that the poll numbers — like most public polls today — “are still within the range.” margin of error.” still very close.
This group of voters, Payne reminds us, “is by no means exclusive. And it's not a runaway race for anyone, right? I think this is something important to realize. It’s a game of inches.”
Among white voters, the economy comes first, followed by democracy, immigration and the preservation of the right to abortion. It is on the issue of the economy that Trump and the Republicans may find the most differences, with 41% of white voters blaming the Biden-Harris administration for inflation and a third believing that the Republican Party is “much better” on this issue.
For Democrats, it is abortion that could make the biggest difference in this voting bloc. Like Wheeling in Erie, nearly half of white women told Galvanize they would only vote for a candidate who took action to protect abortion rights.
“What we hear (from moderate white women) is that even if I never decide to have an abortion, it is a freedom that the women I love deserve and should be protected,” Paine said.
NBC News data from the last three presidential cycles only reinforces the idea that the party is in the midst of a rebuilding — albeit a lasting one.
In NBC News aggregate polls since 2012, Republicans have maintained a 5-point lead with this group, only to gradually lose it over the next few election cycles. The NBC News poll margin has grown from there: a 4-point lead for Democrats in 2020 and now a 6-point lead in 2024.
The trend is particularly pronounced among young white women ages 18 to 34. According to this data, white women ages 35 to 54 remain in the Republican Party column, and at age 55 and older, the trend line shows a disparity between the two parties.
It is entirely possible that this voting bloc will be a contest even after 2024. It should be for the taking.
Asked whether his voting choice this year represented a permanent realignment, Wheeling, who is now registered as an independent, responded: “Maybe with my registration, but not with my vote. Votes are always based on people, character and issues.”
