Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are dead The latest national poll from NBC NewsTrump was boosted by the return of Republicans to his country to support him after last month's bitter debates and subsequent election deficits, as well as the ratings voters' favorable opinion about Trump's term as president.
These are among the results of a new poll released three weeks before Election Day that shows Harris' popularity is down from the previous month after he received a big boost over the summer; Huge gender gap between Harris and Trump support; And voters see abortion as a top motivating issue on the 2024 ballot.
“With the onset of summer, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have ceased,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturf. “The race is a draw.”
McInturf said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential race, including concerns that the vice president does not represent a replacement for President Joe Biden and that voters will view Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than they did. Biden's.
“He’s asking for another term from the current team,” McInturf said of Harris.
Still, the poll highlights the uncertainty about the elections (10% of voters say they can change their minds and a portion of undecided voters are still on the fence), with a higher percentage of voters ever believing that This presidential election will make “a lot of difference” in their lives. and important challenges for Harris and Trump. Third-party voting could also play a role – Trump gets a small boost, by a 1-point margin, if third-party candidates are included in the vote.
And in a delicately balanced election, even small changes in polls between different parties can be the difference between victory and defeat for either party.
“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Will she be able to rise to the moment and fill the gaps that voters feel about her?” asked Democratic pollster Horwitt.
“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he argue that the chaos and personal behavior that has disturbed many in his first term will not disrupt the government and representation of America?” he added.
“The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.
In the new poll – conducted October 4-8 – Harris received support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump received an identical 48%. Another 4% said they were undecided or would not vote for either option if forced to choose between the two major party candidates.
(Read more of the NBC News polls here on Why this survey measures registered voters and not likely voters.)
A change from this September's NBC News poll yielded Harris by 5 points, 49%-44%, although the result was within the margin of error.
An extended vote with third-party candidates also showed the change, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll choosing Trump, 46% supporting Harris and a total of 7% choosing another candidate or saying they were undecided.
In September, however, Harris maintained a 6-point lead in this extended vote.
Given that close elections are often decided by which party will best appeal to their voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different voting scenarios.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — meaning slightly higher turnout among men, white voters and voters without a college degree — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
But assuming a more favorable voting climate for Democrats — meaning more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color showing up to the polls — the poll results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters. , 49%-46%. .
All of these results are within the survey's margin of error, plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
(Read here for a detailed analysis of these different voting scenarios and how they will affect the election.)
A huge gender disparity
At 48%-48%, the poll results are as close as possible. But there is wide variation in support for candidates between different parties.
The poll found Harris with her biggest leads over Trump among black voters (84%-11%), young voters ages 18-34 (57%-37%), and white voters with a college degree (55%-41%).
Meanwhile, Trump leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%), and white voters without a college degree (65%-33%).
However, one of the defining characteristics of the election is a large gender disparity between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a 14-point margin (55%-41%) and men supporting Trump by 16 points (56%). %-40%). ).
Independent voters are broadly divided in the vote, with Harris receiving 44% support versus 40% choosing Trump. Compared to other groups, there are more independents who have not yet chosen between Harris and Trump – or who say they do not want to choose between them.
Harris's popularity declined
Another notable change in NBC News polls since September is Harris' popularity.
A September NBC News poll conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on September 10 marked a huge improvement, doubling her popularity from the summer before she became the Democratic presidential nominee. His rating rose to 48% positive and 45% negative (a net rating of +3).
But in this latest poll, Harris' rating is 43% positive and 49% negative (-6), with the decline largely coming from independent voters and young voters.
That's not far from Trump's 43% positive and 51% negative score (-8) in this same poll. This positive rating is the highest since Trump left office in an NBC News poll.
Biden's idea of the presidency lags behind Trump's
Another story from the poll is voters' differing views on Biden's presidency and Trump's — a key issue given the candidates' efforts to present themselves as agents of change in this election.
Twenty-five percent of voters said Biden's policies helped them and their families, compared with 45% who believe they hurt them.
These numbers largely depend on opinions about Trump's previous presidency: 44% of voters say the former president's policies helped them, compared to 31% who say they hurt them.
What's more, looking at Trump's presidency, 48% of voters said they approved of the former president's job performance. That's a higher job approval rating in an NBC News poll than Trump had when he was president.
It also contrasts with Biden's current 43% approval rating in the poll.
And asked what concerns them more – Harris continuing the same path as Biden or Trump continuing the same path since his first term as president – 43% of voters said they were more concerned about Harris following Biden's path, compared with 41% doing so. Trump is worried about repeating the actions of his presidency.
“Harris's slight lead on this measure is a warning sign, as voters are more likely to believe that Biden's policies are hurting their families, while Trump's policies have helped them,” said Democratic pollster Horvitt.
Abortion is the most motivating issue – and the best issue for Harris
Although with most public polls NBC News National Poll for September finding the cost of living ranked as voters' top concern, the survey asked a different question to gauge voters' intensity and motivation on Election Day: Is there any question about which you feel so strongly about that you will only vote for or against one candidate? About this?
Top responses, with varying endorsements: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protection of democracy or constitutional rights (18%), and cost of living (16%).
The NBC News poll tested Harris and Trump on nine different presidential issues and qualities, including who would best handle some of the key issues that voters consider their top priorities.
The best questions for Trump vs. Trump Harris were abortion (19 points ahead of Trump in handling issues), health care (+10) and being competent and effective (+5).
Trump's main issues and attributes: Dealing with the border (+25), dealing with the situation in the Middle East (+18) and cost of living (+11).
On the key question of which candidate could represent change, Harris leads Trump by 5 points, 45% to 40%, but down from the 9-point lead here in September.
Other important search results
Sixty-two percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a “big difference” in their lives. This is the highest response to this NBC News poll question since 1992.
As in the presidential ballot, Democrats and Republicans are tied on congressional preferences, with 47% of registered voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress and a similar 47% wanting Republicans in power. Democrats held a 2-point lead in September, 48%-46%, which was within the margin of error.
And 31% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction, while 64% think it is heading in the wrong direction. The proportion of voters who believe the country is on the wrong path is the lowest in the poll since August 2021, the last time Biden had a positive career approval rating in the poll.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were contacted by cell phone, was conducted Oct. 4-8. This has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
