Abortion rights ballot measure is popular, but has not translated into full Democratic support

LAS VEGAS — Nevada Democratic Assemblymember Shannon Bilbrey Axelrod stood in front of a conference table Wednesday night to thank volunteers for their hard work. But the volunteers weren't there to boost his campaign for Clark County commissioner.

They were asking voters to support “Question 6,” which is far from being voted on. It will guarantee the right to abortion in the state constitution.

The effort to pass Question 6 is not clearly tied to a political party or campaign, but Axelrod was confident the measure could boost his own candidacy in a Democratic-leaning county.

“They have to go to the vote” to get to Question 6, Axelrod said. “So that’s helpful.”

But it remains an important issue for Axelrod and other Democratic candidates in swing states across the country. Many in the party hope these abortion initiatives can win next month's elections.

Constitutional amendments to expand or protect abortion access will come before voters this fall. in 10 states, including the presidential battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada and the Senate battlegrounds of Montana and Florida.

Polls show the ballot measures are widely popular in many states, with results consistent with success There have been similar initiatives In 2022, following the U.S. Supreme Court's backlash against Roe v. Wade. Wade, other areas of the county.

But polls also reveal a notable gap in support between pro-abortion rights amendments and Democratic presidential and Senate candidates who campaign on abortion rights platforms.

With the future of abortion access looming squarely on the ballot, some voters – especially Republican and independents – they will decide – have effectively divorced the issue from candidates of other races.

“It's almost like 'choose your own adventure,'” said Mike Noble, CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan polling and research firm focusing on Nevada, Arizona and other southwestern states.

Noble said voters in states like Arizona and Nevada may feel comfortable supporting a ballot measure to protect abortion rights and allowing other important issues — such as the economy and immigration — to dictate their choices in other key races.

“People will be able to vote on these measures – for or against abortion – but their presence at the ballot box allows them to separate the issue from their choice for Senate or president,” Noble said.

Abortion rights ballot measures won the 2022 and 2023 elections in every state where they appeared on the ballot, including conservative-leaning states. But in a presidential election cycle that will feature much higher turnout and voter turnout, Republicans say the impact of the change will be diminished.

“I think that in a midterm election, an initiative on abortion can certainly be a motivating factor for voting. Presidentially, not so much,” said the Republican senator from Montana. Steve Daines, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told NBC News. “I think voters are highly motivated right now, whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, to show up, first and foremost, to vote in the presidential vote and then proceed with voting from there.”

Even if their candidates do not reach the top of the electoral system, Democrats see a positive outcome for members of their party who have made the right to abortion a central tenet of their campaigns.

“This ballot initiative around abortion is something that is bringing in new voters who didn't participate two years ago and who will vote Democrat in this election,” said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, referring to the Nevada measure.

Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the coalition supporting Question 6, aims to knock on 1 million doors and make 1.5 million phone calls by Election Day, according to Tova Yampolsky, the coalition's campaign manager.

“I think this will get people to vote for the people they like,” said Jerry Barton, director of membership and volunteerism for the Nevada chapter of the National Organization for Women, which organized a recent volunteer event and supported candidates across the country. . voting. .

A Fox News poll from August showed that 75% of registered voters supported passage of the Nevada amendment, while just 21% said they opposed it. More than half of self-identified Republicans and more than three-quarters of self-identified independents said they would vote for the measure.

In the Nevada Senate race, however, The poll showed Democratic Sen. Jackie Rosen ahead of Republican Sam Brown by a narrow margin of error, though still. And Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a heated battle.

Likewise in ArizonaA proposed amendment to include the right to abortion in the state constitution has clear majority support UM The New York Times/Siena College poll is from last month It found that 58% of likely voters said they supported the change, with 35% saying they opposed it. Broken down by party, 63% of those who called themselves Independents and 30% of those who called themselves Republicans said they supported him.

The same poll found Trump leading Harris by a margin of error of 50% to 45%. And in the Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego led Republican Curry Lake by 49% to 43%, also by the margin of error. UM USA Today/Suffolk University Arizona poll produced similar results last month.

“There are other issues that are just as important, if not more important, to people right now,” Noble said. “Abortion is great, but when it comes to putting food on the table or household expenses, the pocketbook issues are hard to overcome.”

In Florida, a proposed abortion-related amendment Democratic candidates also outperform in the polls, albeit by smaller margins and with lower support thresholds.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released this week found that 46% of likely voters supported the change, while 38% said they opposed it. Just over a quarter of self-identified Republicans said they favored the measure.

Other polls in August and September showed the ballot measure received majority support, reportedly surpassing the 60% threshold for approval in Florida.

The New York Times/Sienna poll found that Trump leads Harris 55% to 41% among likely voters and Republican Sen. Rick Scott leads former Democratic Rep. Debbie Muckersell-Powell 49% to 40% in the race for Senate.

In Montana, there is little evidence of the presence of the Abortion Rights Amendment The race between three-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy has had a big impact.

There have been sparse polls on the ballot measure, but polls in the Senate race largely show Sheehy with a lead — although Tester, like other Democrats, is leaning toward reproductive rights as a campaign issue.

A New York Times/Siena College poll from this week's polls showed Sheehy leading among likely voters 52% to 44%, a result that was within the poll's margin of error but also in line with other public polls.

Chuck Denoh, former executive director of the Montana Republican Party, acknowledged the ballot measure “will have an impact” on the Senate race and help woo Democrats. But he was still confident that Sheehy was in a strong position to win.

“A handful of votes for this abortion initiative certainly helps the testator, but it won’t get him to the top,” Denoh said.

Red states are safe territory for Trump in the presidential election.

Meanwhile, polls in other conservative states where a proposed amendment protecting abortion rights is on the ballot in November do not show significant increases for Democrats on the ticket.

For example, in Missouri, public polls indicate broad support for a constitutional amendment for abortion rights, while Republican Senator Josh Hawley and Trump maintain strong leads in their races.

Democrats recognize that such ballot measures are generally more popular than their candidates.

“In every election I've worked on, we always see that ballot initiatives outperform politicians by some margin,” said Rocha, the Democratic strategist. “Many politicians are not popular.”

Bridget Bowman reports from Las Vegas; Adam Edelman reports from New York.