It's a do or die decision: what to watch when USC hosts Penn State

The chorus seemed frustratingly familiar. Here again, in the wake of another disappointing defeat, the same rosy message from Lincoln Riley sounded, assuring the public that USC was really just a few plays, a few stops, a few inches from where their coach wanted them.

It's all a matter of perspective. As close as USC may have come to winning, and as “battle-tested” as it may have been right now, the harsh reality is that Riley has lost seven of his last 12 appearances as the Trojans' coach. That's the equivalent of the worst 12 games of Clay Helton's career as USC coach.

With No. 4 Penn State on Saturday at the Coliseum, the Trojans now play in the mid-October College Football Playoff with zero room for error.

“I promise you,” Riley said this week, “we are still a very confident team. This is not a team that kicked our ass after two defeats. No, that's not the case. We know what we are capable of.”

Miller Moss had plenty of time to consider this topic on the long flight home from Minneapolis on October 5.

“The most important thing for us right now,” the point guard said, “is everything we stood for, everything we worked for, all the messages we gave to the team that told us what we stand for, when you face adversity like this, then that is most frequently tested.”

The game against Penn State will be at a crossroads next weekend.

“We have two pretty clear options,” Moss continued. “Let's double down on who we are, let's get closer as a team and take advantage of the great opportunity we have this weekend, or let it affect us and hold us back from what we ultimately want to do.”

By Saturday night, we should have a much better idea of ​​what path the Trojans have chosen.

Run defense after exhaustion

It was a classic Big Ten plan. Launch the ball. Limit your possessions. Grind the clock. However, in the case of USC against Minnesota, there was little the defense could do to stop it. The Golden Gophers accumulated 193 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 40 carries, nine of which came on the final winning drive.

It was strikingly similar to what worked in Michigan's game against USC two weeks earlier. With an even more powerful offense coming next weekend, there's no reason to believe Penn State won't follow the same plan.

Penn State will have the second-fewest offense in the Big Ten on Saturday – 40 attempts per game – with a pair of running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen ranking among the best in the conference. Singleton in particular has been electric this season, racking up nearly eight yards per carry.

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“Probably the best two we'll see so far,” linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold said of both defenders.

It's not like everything was going well when it came to USC's defense. The Trojans rank 17th in the conference in rushing defense, allowing over 158 yards per game. That's a nearly 30-yard improvement over last season's unit. However, in the Big Ten, where teams are content to play “stay away” from USC, that's not good enough.

Complicating matters is the fact that USC will once again be without Eric Gentry, its leader in the fight against lost yardage and sacks.

Zachariah Branch's big game?

Big plays have always been a big part of Riley's offense, but they haven't been as easy to make this season as they usually are for Moss and Co.

USC ranks 71st nationally in explosive plays of 20 or more yards, well below the usual range for a Riley-led offense. Before this year, Riley's performances at USC and Oklahoma each finished outside the top 10. USC has finished in the top four for the last two seasons.

A slow start to the season with Zachariah Branch, the Trojans' most dynamic open field weapon, didn't help in that regard. The unit was limited to 54 total receiving yards over the last two weeks. He also made some costly mistakes, including muffing a punt against Wisconsin and returning a key third-down pass against Minnesota.

Read more: Lincoln Riley still thinks USC can be a “really good team” despite the loss to Minnesota

Riley admitted Monday that Branch was “pushing a little bit” but was “on the verge of having another few” big games.

Penn State boasts one of the best defenses in the country when it comes to limiting explosive plays, allowing just 43 plays of more than 10 yards this season, fourth-best in college football.

This would be the perfect time for Branch to emerge from the crisis. Moss won't stop trying.

“My message to him is I will continue to get him the ball,” Moss said. “In those situations, he will continue to receive the ball and continue to make those plays.”

Pressure party

When D'Anton Lynn took over the UCLA defense in 2023, he didn't have to worry too much about creating pressure. His Laiatu Latu, a future first-round NFL draft pick, screamed from the edge. Or the Murphy twins wreaking havoc.

Lynn has never seen rushing success like this at USC. The Trojans rank last among 18 Big Ten teams in pressures (45) this season.

By comparison, Penn State put more than twice the pressure on quarterbacks (100). It also boasts one of the best pass rushers in college football in Abdul Carter, who in five games (16) is providing as much pressure as USC's starting defense.

Lynn said he continues to emphasize putting more pressure “every week.” However, at this point, it's just a matter of players “developing into pass-rushers.”

“I think it's gotten better,” Lynn said. “And then, from a schematic standpoint, how can we put them in the best positions to be successful?”

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This story originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.