This Pennsylvania House Race Could Predict Who Will Win the Presidency

Allentown, Pennsylvania. — Big-name politicians are descending on Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley in the final weeks of the 2024 elections, where voters in the swing district of the 7th Congressional District, if not the White House, could decide which party will control the House next year.

On Wednesday, House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., joined Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., on a tour of Latino-owned small businesses here. The next day, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was stumped by his Republican opponent, state Rep. Ryan McKenzie, in Hellertown, while Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., participated in a discussion about voting rights with Wilde in nearby Easton.

Next week, Minority Leader Catherine Clark, D-Mass., will campaign for Wilde at a reproductive rights event in Allentown.

Between Wilde, a moderate Democrat, and McKenzie, a Republican with a long family history in the district, it's a “bell mark” for the presidential election, Wilde said — a true swing district in a swing state that will play a key role in deciding who holds the White House.

“This is a district that, rightly or wrongly, has elected the president for at least the last seven cycles – and will do so again this year. I keep telling people outside the area: On election night, watch Pennsylvania 7 if you want to know what the presidential election will be like,” Wilde said in an interview with NBC News after several campaign stops with Aguilar in Allentown.

“This is not an exaggeration. This is not hyperbole,” he said. “I guarantee you…as does the Greater Lehigh Valley, so does the nation.”

The battleground district of Eastern Pennsylvania, north of Philadelphia, is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans; And based on updated congressional lines, President Joe Biden outperformed former President Donald Trump here in 2020, 49.7% to 49.1%.

Not 80s Allentown

In many ways, the district is a microcosm of the nation as a whole — a mix of urban, suburban and rural areas and an area that is becoming more diverse, thanks to a rapidly growing Latino community. Latinos are moving here from Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Colombia, Guatemala and Venezuela, but also from the more expensive areas of New York and New Jersey.

Encouraged by Aguilar and others, Wild is working to attract Latino voters in places like Allentown, a once-proud center of iron and steel production whose population is now 55% Latino, up from about 43% in the 2010 U.S. Census. . About a third of the population of the Belém neighborhood is Latino.

“People know Billy Joel’s songs. They consider Allentown a post-industrial city. But the reality is that this is a city that has been growing steadily since the 80s – like, our low point was probably around Billy Joel music – and we've grown largely on the strength of a growing Latino community,” said Matthew Twerk . , which will be Allentown's first in 2022. He made history as a Latino and Spanish-speaking mayor.

Tuork caught up with Wilde and Aguilar as they passed the El Mercadito grocery store in downtown Allentown on Wednesday. Previously, Wilde and Aguilar visited Restaurante El Tablazo, a Dominican family restaurant that serves empanadas, Cuban sandwiches and oxtail stew.

Everyone ended up at La Cocina del Abuelo (Grandpa's Kitchen) for a large roundtable with a dozen local Latino leaders who addressed Vice President Kamala Harris. Provide long-term care, reduce prescription drug prices and bureaucracy for small businesses, and require more federal services.

Wilde served as a lawyer in Allentown before winning a special election in 2018 to succeed moderate Republican Rep. Charlie Dent, who, like Wilde, served as chairman of the ethics committee. He was re-elected in 2022 by less than 2 percentage points. Polls now show a wild lead above the Mackenzie, but within the margin of error.

Although he is more tenured and older than Mackenzie, Wilde, 67, labeled Mackenzie, 42, a “career politician,” noting that he has served in elected office for 12 years — twice as long. In Harrisburg, she worked with her mother, Republican state Rep. Milo McKenzie.

Both Wilde and McKenzie are white.

Latino leaders at the roundtable said the congresswoman has spent the last six years building relationships with the community. “He’s here,” said Greenberg Lemas, a Mexican-American and owner of La Cocina del Abuelo, adding that he has Wilde’s phone number and often sends him concerned texts.

Aguilar, the third-ranking House Democrat and the highest-ranking Hispanic member of Congress, told leaders that the Latino community in Allentown — and across the country — has matured and learned to access “doors that weren’t open before.” Be it “growing pains”.

“But I can tell you,” he said, “for anyone who works with her every day in D.C., Susan Wild is by your side.”

The fight for immigration

McKenzie and Republicans have attacked Wild as weak on border security, saying he repeatedly voted against Trump's border wall and that contributed to the numbers. Unaccompanied immigrant children in the Lehigh Valley.

“He has a history of failing border security,” McKenzie said in an interview Thursday after a rally with Johnson in Hellertown. “He's officially calling the border wall 'stupid.' He considered sanctuary cities safe and voted against border wall funding 10 different times.

Wild rejected that narrative during a recent debate with McKenzie, saying he had already voted for wall funding once and criticizing him for opposing it. Bipartisan Senate border security bill.

Johnson threw more red meat to the 150 Republican faithful who gathered to see McKenzie and the speaker at the Steel Club, a former meeting place for Bethlehem Steel executives and supervisors that is now a private golf club.

“Every state is a border state, as we say, because they extended the border, and yes, they did it intentionally, right? They wanted to turn these people into voters,” Johnson said, echoing a baseless conspiracy theory that Trump has often put forward, even though it is already rare for illegals and noncitizens to vote. “Why would they subject the country to this disastrous outcome, to human trafficking, to violent crime, to the entry of known terrorists into our country?”

Despite these difficult border negotiations, McKenzie's campaign, like Trump's, sees an opportunity to attract Latino voters. A recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll found support for Harris among Latino voters at 54%, the lowest level in the last four presidential election cycles. Trump held a rally this week in nearby Reading, where about 7 in 10 residents are Latino.

McKenzie said he participated in the Puerto Rican parade and the Dominican festival in Allentown. But he hasn't changed his message to court Latinos, especially immigrants or Puerto Rican immigrants.

“The issues in the Hispanic community are the same as those in the regular, broader community. …They talk about the cost of living. They talk about immigration. They see crime and drugs in their communities crossing an open southern border,” McKenzie said.

“The only thing we do differently is put it in Spanish,” he said. “And that. It’s the same message, the same communication.”

Radio host and executive Victor Martinez, who owns the popular Spanish-language station La Mega in Allentown and who participated in Wilde's roundtable, said he was “bombarded” by Democrats trying to get on his airwaves. He recently interviewed Harris and her running mate Tim Walz on his show, but said he hasn't seen any interest or outreach from Republicans this cycle. He supported Harris in a campaign video last month.

“If they are seen to be over-catering or over-reaching to Latino voters, I think that could upset their base,” Martinez said. 'Wait a minute: here you are telling us that they are the ones taking our benefits and are responsible for many things and at the same time there you are telling them to vote for you and offering things to make yours better lives?'

“I think they're having a hard time bringing the two together, and that's why we haven't seen all the marketing, the advertising, trying to get the Latino vote — at least here in Pennsylvania. He was silenced,” he added.

Abortion rights and beliefs

The candidates also clashed on other issues. Wilde tried to portray Mackenzie as bad for female voters. In his ad, he suggests he opposes and highlights IVF, reporting that he lied about being eight years old on a Tinder dating profile.

He also took aim at his previous vote in the state legislature to ban abortion after 19 weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for rape and incest.

McKenzie said Wilde was trying to “mischaracterize” her record and “mislead voters” — she is a total supporter of IVF, she said, adding that she voted for another bill that would allow taxpayers' money to be used for some abortions in cases of rape. Mother's illness and life.

McKenzie, who is now married with a son, called the Tinder issue a “distraction,” saying no voters mentioned the issue to her during the campaign. He said he is focused on issues such as inflation and border security.

“People want answers about what you will actually do to help them and improve their lives,” he said.