By the time next weekend rolls around, ticket sales will take an unfortunate hit. There's no need to go back to the truly dismal first half of 2024, when theaters were desperate for even modest hits, but the point is that the industry really doesn't need any more failures. Unfortunately, with “Joker: Folie à Deux” bombing hard with no hope of a rebound, the first half of October is on life support. In this situation, the release of Paramount's “Smile 2” can't come soon enough, as the horror sequel will give the box office a much-needed boost.
Parker Finn's sequel to 2022's surprise hit “Smile” could currently debut between $25 million and $35 million when it hits theaters next weekend, according to Box Office Theory. Even at the low end, that would put it above the original, which opened at $22.6 million at the end of September 2022. However, “Smile” soon became a hit, grossing $217 million worldwide and showing off its great legs despite its harsh words. This played a key role in turning Finn's original idea into a true genre hit. As such, the opening weekend will only tell a small part of the story when it comes to the sequel.
Still, it will be exactly what the industry needs. By the time the film premieres on January 18, “Joker” will be pretty much dead, “Wild Robot” will likely be starting to fade, and “Beetlejuice” will be almost ready with its admittedly impressive theatrical run. This is all to the benefit of Paramount and Finn, however, as there will be much less opposition than previously expected. Michael Keaton's comedy “Goodrich,” Cath Blanchett's acclaimed “Gossip” and Disney's “Hocus Pocus” reboot are unlikely to face direct competition. The path is clear for this one to dominate.
Can Smile 2 be as tall as the original?
“Smile 2” centers on world-famous pop artist Skye Riley (Naomi Scott) who is about to embark on a new world tour when she begins to experience increasingly terrifying, inexplicable events. Overwhelmed by mounting horrors and the pressures of fame, she is forced to confront her dark past before her life spirals out of control. Scott stars alongside Lukas Gage (“Road House”), Rosemarie DeWitt (“The Boys”), Peter Jacobson (“Fear the Walking Dead”) and Kyle Gallner, who reprises his role from the first film. In addition to taking the director's chair, Finn wrote the screenplay.
At least everything looks good on the outside. Part of what made the first “Smile” such a success was the fact that its production budget was only $17 million. Paramount originally intended to drop the film directly onto Paramount+, but wisely opted for a theatrical release once they knew what it had in store. He also signed a contract with Parker Finn for “Smile 2”, serving as his first business assignment. Here's hoping Paramount has once again been wise to its budget. Yes, the sequel will likely be more expensive, but hopefully the studio can stay under $40 million.
The question is how much competition will eat into ticket sales for “Smile 2” in the coming weeks. “Venom: The Last Dance” is fast approaching, and audiences will be hungry for a blockbuster in light of what happened with “Joker 2.” On the horror side, “Terrifier 3” may surprisingly top the charts on its opening weekend. But can this last for weeks? Or will it be a difficult task the first weekend, followed by a steep decline? Reviews may be crucial for “Smile 2” more than for many other horror films. If word of mouth is good again, it should be in good shape. If the critics take it much more kindly and the audience agrees? It may be harder to forge a similar path to its predecessor. At least initially, it will help fill some empty seats in theaters across the country.
“Smile 2” will hit theaters on October 18, 2024.
