The good thing about being sent off in the first game of the season is that at least you found your footing. When your opponent hits you 10 times – even if that opponent is the University of Georgia – well, there's only one direction left to go.
Just look at Clemson now. Forgotten Clemson, mocked Clemson, dismissed Clemson, ground into an orange paste by the Dawgs in its season debut, has now won four in a row. Thanks to a very favorable schedule and a difficult SEC situation, Clemson, with a 4-1 record and undefeated in the ACC, is in an excellent position to play in the College Football Playoff. After the last two starts – 4-7-7 games in 2021 and 4-4-8 games in 2023 – Clemson has been in conference shape so far and that has made a difference.
At the start of the season, last week's Clemson-Florida State clash was expected to be one of the most important ACC games of the year. The Noles killed it by self-destructing, and Clemson took care of business, 29-13. As a result, Clemson's remaining route resembles Interstate 85 without speed cameras, an open road to Charlotte and the ACC Championship. The only currently ranked team still on the Tigers' schedule is No. 22 Pitt. Clemson wouldn't face either conference leader Miami or dark horse (sorry) SMU until the hypothetical ACC title game.
Not only that, but last week's sudden unrest in college football opens the door a little wider for Clemson. If you compare quality losses, it's better to lose to top-ranked Georgia in the first week than to lose to an unranked team later in the season.
Other than that, it's a stark reminder that there are no tricks in college football anymore. Yes, Clemson is on a 15-game winning streak against Wake Forest dating back to 2009, but as last weekend showed, there's still a week left in a potentially disastrous season.
“College football did us a favor,” Swinney said earlier this week. “It's a week where, if you pay attention to what people are saying outside, they'll say, 'Hey, we're supposed to win. This isn't a “should” game. It's a game of what you do.
The flip side of an easy path to the ACC title game, of course, is that Clemson has no margin for error. Alabama can survive a loss to Vanderbilt, Tennessee can survive a loss to Arkansas. But Clemson, with its extremely soft schedule, won't get a mulligan for a loss to Wake, Virginia Tech or Citadel. A loss in the ACC championship game and a 10-2 record would likely be enough to advance. Failure earlier? Enjoy your bowling, Tigers.
This also complicates matters for Clemson: Both Miami and SMU also have relatively easy schedules from now on, which means – in theory – all three could be undefeated in conference play at the end of the season.
Clemson currently ranks in the top middle of the ACC in major offensive categories – fifth in yards per game, sixth in yards per game and third in rushing yards. Defensively, the Tigers are statistically in the bottom half of the conference. However, on the plus side, winning the 3-point game against Georgia would put Clemson in first place in points allowed per game… so far.
Right now, the ESPN College Football Power Index rates Clemson's chances of making the College Football Playoffs at 37.2 percent. That's second in the ACC behind Miami, but ranks 14th overall, sandwiched between Iowa State and Texas A&M. It's not perfect… but the teams above Clemson have a much tougher road ahead of them.
Speaking of roads… Swinney is trying to get the Tigers to adopt a “windshield mentality,” which is to only look at the road ahead, not the rearview mirror. True, this is a coaching speech, but it has a specific purpose.
“We're only 4-1 after a really good away win,” Swinney said. “We didn't do anything. We only have 4:1. That's all. All we did was create a bit of an opportunity for ourselves, but we have a long way to go.”
That's true. But the road is much shorter now than it was when Clemson walked the dogs in Georgia in August.
