The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● WI Ballot: Wisconsin Democrats and their allies are waging an expensive campaign to convince voters next week to reject two Republican-backed constitutional amendments that would strip Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of key powers. But while conservatives don’t appear to be spending nearly as much money on their campaign, the timing of the election and the wording of the two amendments could overcome any Democratic financial advantage.
One of these amendments, which will be identified on the ballot as Question 1, would bar legislators from delegating authority over spending to the executive branch, a critical tool that gives officials leeway to address emergencies and other unforeseen issues. Question 2, likewise, would prohibit the governor from dispensing federal funds without the legislature’s explicit permission. The GOP legislature wrote both amendments and scheduled them to appear on the Aug. 13 primary ballot, a day without any other major statewide races.
A trio of progressive groups have raised more than $3.5 million, reports WisPolitics, to urge Wisconsinites to vote “no” on both. “They’re designed to trick voters into eliminating checks and balances in our government,” warns the narrator in a TV ad for one of those organizations, Protect Wisconsin’s Constitution-Vote No. “It’s a power grab to give the MAGA politicians in our legislature the sole power to distribute emergency funding. They gerrymander, deny elections, and push abortion bans.”
Evers and other Badger State Democrats are also ardently opposing the two amendments. State party chair Ben Wikler recently predicted that their passage would make it tougher for the state government to distribute money in an emergency. Elizabeth Koehler, who heads the Nature Conservancy in Wisconsin, also used her op-ed in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel to argue that victories for Questions 1 and 2 would endanger vital federal funding for key conservation programs.
On the other side, the conservative groups Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty and IRG Action Fund last month announced a “six-figure, public awareness campaign” to pass the amendments. WILL is one of Wisconsin’s leading conservative organizations that litigates to defend Republican gerrymandering and efforts to restrict voting access.
It’s not clear how much money they have at their disposal, however, because WisPolitics writes that those two organizations weren’t required to submit fundraising reports to state election officials “because the campaigns don’t constitute a majority of their work.” (The only outfit that did turn in this paperwork reported raising just $15,000 through July 29.)
However, conservatives are hoping that progressives won’t be able to spend enough money to mobilize their base for what will likely be a low-turnout election. The amendments are also worded to make them sound like they’re aimed at protecting checks and balances rather than eroding them.
Question 1, for instance, would alter the state constitution to say that “[t]he legislature may not delegate its sole power to determine how moneys shall be appropriated.” Question 2, likewise, says, “The governor may not allocate any federal moneys the governor accepts on behalf of the state without the approval of the legislature by joint resolution or as provided by legislative rule.”
The only poll we’ve seen, which was conducted by RMG Research in late June for a conservative group, found both questions winning when presented in such a way. A 31-22 plurality of registered voters said they’d favor an amendment “that would prevent the legislature from giving up its responsibility for making state spending decisions.”
A much stronger 62-22 majority responded in the affirmative when told, “Currently, billions of federal taxpayer dollars flowing into Wisconsin are being spent with approval by only the governor and no legislative review. Would you favor requiring both the legislature and the governor to approve this spending going forward?” That poll, though, was conducted before progressives began making their case for a “no” vote in earnest. It also sampled registered voters rather than the far smaller primary electorate.
This campaign is the latest instance of legislative Republicans using their power to weaken Evers—an effort that began in 2018 after he unseated GOP Gov. Scott Walker but before the Democrat took office. Republicans have also conducted an unprecedented blockade of executive branch appointments by voting to fire his appointees and refusing to confirm others for key offices, such as the board that governs Wisconsin’s university system.
And while Evers has used his veto to stop right-wing bills from becoming law, the legislature has circumvented this by placing measures on the ballot. During the April presidential primary, for instance, the GOP successfully convinced voters to pass two more amendments that election administrators warned could make their jobs harder and potentially create chaos.
However, Republicans may not be able to use this tool after this year’s election. The state approved new legislative maps to replace Republican gerrymanders that the state Supreme Court struck down late last year, and the revamped boundaries give Democrats their best chance to flip the chamber since the GOP gained power in the 2010 red wave.
Democrats are determined to make use of this opportunity, and they’re fielding candidates in 97 of the 99 seats in the Assembly, while Republicans are contesting 84 races. The state Senate, by contrast, is likely to remain in GOP hands because only half the chamber is up each cycle, but Democrats are hoping to make crucial gains this year to set them up for more success in 2026. Both parties will pick their nominees for both the Assembly and Senate—including in some key battlegrounds—on Tuesday, the same day that voters will decide the fate of these two amendments.
Election Night
● HI State House: Hawaii holds its downballot primary on Saturday, and while there aren’t many competitive races to look forward to, not everyone gets to rest easy this weekend. State House Speaker Scott Saiki faces his third Democratic primary challenge in as many cycles against former state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto, whose 2006 election to that office made her the nation’s most prominent transgender elected official.
Iwamoto went on to decisively lose a 2016 nomination battle for the state Senate before taking fourth place in the 2018 primary for lieutenant governor against now-Gov. Josh Green. (The runner-up was Jill Tokuda, who now represents the 2nd Congressional District.) Her subsequent campaigns against Saiki, though, have been much closer, and she lost by just 167 and 161 votes in 2020 and 2022, respectively.
Iwamoto is insisting she’ll finally break through on Saturday. She argued to Hawaii News Now’s Daryl Huff that the speaker’s support from prominent politicians, including Green, proves that “the status quo in Hawaii, they’re threatened by this.” Allies of Saiki, whom one political observer has dubbed a “centrist with liberal tendencies,” are indeed taking her renewed effort seriously, and a large public-sector union is financing a super PAC to defend him in this Honolulu seat.
If Iwamoto wins, then politics in this dark blue state could be in for a big upheaval. Honolulu Civil Beat’s Kevin Dayton writes that Saiki, who has served as speaker since 2017, has earned “a reputation for keeping a firm grip on the direction of the House—too firm, some of his fellow lawmakers would say.” Saiki, though, has a different take on his long tenure, declaring, “In this day and age, with what’s happening nationally, the public doesn’t want a dictator.”
Other prominent Aloha State politicians, meanwhile, have little to worry about on Saturday or in the fall. Indeed, HNN political analyst Colin Moore acknowledged after filing closed in June that he’d “never” seen such an uneventful election cycle at home.
Governors
● VA-Gov, VA-LG: Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears told a Republican gathering over the weekend that she wouldn’t seek reelection to her current post next year, though she held off on announcing her long-anticipated campaign to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin. “So I know you heard I am not running for the lieutenant governorship again,” she told the party faithful, “but I am exploring a run for governor.”
Earle-Sears, though, did not use a subsequent interview with The Daily Progress’ Jason Armesto to provide a timeline for when she would make a final decision. “People ask me, ‘Well when are you going to launch?'” she acknowledged. “And I say, ‘When I stop exploring.’ So we’ll see. We’ll see what happens.”
Attorney General Jason Miyares, who is Virginia’s third and final statewide Republican, is also a potential candidate for governor, though he’s indicated he won’t decide anything until this year’s election is over. “I will be happy to comment about and discuss my political future [at] the appropriate time. We have a really important election right now,” he told the National Review’s Audrey Fahlberg in late June.
There’s far less uncertainty on the Democratic side. Rep. Abigail Spanberger launched her own campaign last year, and she lost her only serious primary opponent in April, when Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney dropped out to launch a bid for Earle-Sears’ seat.
House
● MI-08: Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has publicized a survey from Global Strategy Group that shows her narrowly trailing Republican Paul Junge 45-44 in Michigan’s competitive 8th District, though the memo says that’s an improvement from her 35-28 deficit in an unreleased poll from May. The release for this survey, which was completed days before both McDonald Rivet and Junge decisively won their respective primaries on Tuesday, did not include numbers for the presidential race.
The only other general election poll we’ve seen here in recent months was an early June poll from UpONE Insights, conducted on behalf of the Junge campaign, that showed him leading McDonald Rivet 42-39.
● NJ-09: Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell’s office announced Wednesday evening that he’d been discharged from the hospital after a 24-day stay. The 87-year-old Pascrell, who checked himself in last month for a fever, later required breathing assistance after what his staff characterized as a “setback.” Pascrell’s team, though, said in late July that his condition was improving.
Poll Pile
HighGround’s CEO is a longtime Republican strategist but has donated to Gallego’s campaign.
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